{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a59aa317-7b63-4d88-9c74-3c78f79414c0", "symbol": "JRVR", "name": "James River Group Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.277, "architecture_energy": 23.418, "architecture_maturity": 83.264, "architecture_confidence": 67.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.09, "rotation_up": 28.91, "upward_expansion": 21.11, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 20.31, "downward_expansion": 55.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.622, 4.524001, 4.560639, 4.937744 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.7, "trend_reference": 5.470761, "distance_from_trend": -0.140887, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.875173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316381, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.970734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.329657, "excess_performance": -0.517111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140887, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089595, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316381, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329657, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.917288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 875655, "relative_activity": 0.503153, "balance": 1.917288, "dry_up": 0.605932, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078585, "annualized_volatility": 0.623288, "from_high_reference": -0.344526, "from_low_reference": 0.253149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.470761, "fair_value_reference": 6.875173, "structural_low": 3.750553, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.015168, "positive_rate": 0.446809, "directional_follow_through": 0.553191, "median_excess_return": -0.027646, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 0.242009, "worst_return": -0.35769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.072932, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.098214, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.309928, "worst_return": -0.3964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.139435, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.231669, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.176177, "worst_return": -0.539213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.817687, 5.268111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.56, "volume": 1550234, "typical_volume": 1843234.75, "trend": 5.685697, "fair_value": 7.192843, "relative_strength": -31.315137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.384202, "energy": 43.032252, "activity_lines": [ 4.403333, 4.250719, 4.740922, 5.190856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.59, "volume": 1028800, "typical_volume": 1830788.75, "trend": 5.630879, "fair_value": 7.106656, "relative_strength": -27.34999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.401006, "energy": 30.946253, "activity_lines": [ 4.493333, 4.326731, 4.67788, 5.120166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.71, "volume": 1278896, "typical_volume": 1797655.7, "trend": 5.575747, "fair_value": 7.023943, "relative_strength": -23.731141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.955309, "energy": 25.909342, "activity_lines": [ 4.596667, 4.416372, 4.637607, 5.060754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.49, "volume": 1034751, "typical_volume": 1783982.95, "trend": 5.520916, "fair_value": 6.943876, "relative_strength": -27.185412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.234005, "energy": 22.135257, "activity_lines": [ 4.576, 4.455641, 4.584637, 4.990706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7, "volume": 875655, "typical_volume": 1740336.65, "trend": 5.470761, "fair_value": 6.875173, "relative_strength": -26.970734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.276736, "energy": 23.417929, "activity_lines": [ 4.622, 4.524001, 4.560639, 4.937744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }