{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a59e974f-c264-4fd9-926a-f6756f96aee4", "symbol": "3044", "name": "Tripod Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.873, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.804, "architecture_energy": 21.064, "architecture_maturity": 43.681, "architecture_confidence": 81.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.89, "rotation_up": 23.05, "upward_expansion": 43.48, "deceleration": 77.1, "rotation_down": 40.19, "downward_expansion": 35.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 420.433333, 433.860366, 451.365285, 438.99194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 488.0, "trend_reference": 417.646756, "distance_from_trend": 0.168452, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 248.186002, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.966267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.802425, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.321459, "excess_performance": -0.119913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.966267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.321459, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.309913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32540016, "relative_activity": 1.562318, "balance": 1.309913, "dry_up": 0.921996, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130807, "annualized_volatility": 0.592484, "from_high_reference": -0.161382, "from_low_reference": 0.738279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 417.646756, "fair_value_reference": 248.186002, "structural_low": 327.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.195122, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099293, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.294372, "worst_return": 0.039933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13811, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.22907, "worst_return": 0.011327, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.196735, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058871, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.213592, "worst_return": 0.179878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 244.350226, "relative_strength": -22.562049, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.991635, "energy": 37.364934, "activity_lines": [ 400.833899, 440.21094, 450.990225, 435.019375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 394.0, "volume": 15539592, "typical_volume": 19859266.0, "trend": 411.711095, "fair_value": 245.963946, "relative_strength": -18.994651, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.593723, "energy": 37.505969, "activity_lines": [ 391.233333, 427.463093, 446.798629, 434.070076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 488.0, "volume": 32540016, "typical_volume": 20828036.4, "trend": 417.646756, "fair_value": 248.186002, "relative_strength": -2.802425, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.804413, "energy": 21.064385, "activity_lines": [ 420.433333, 433.860366, 451.365285, 438.99194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }