{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a59f504a-5f6a-4904-a064-80f766615309", "symbol": "JPXY", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Japan SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.161, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.372, "architecture_energy": 74.917, "architecture_maturity": 28.525, "architecture_confidence": 73.48, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 72.1, "upward_expansion": 87.4, "deceleration": 53.51, "rotation_down": 15.9, "downward_expansion": 14.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 9648.138542, 9553.170384, 9338.518713, 9194.854944 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9796.692383, "trend_reference": 9057.869596, "distance_from_trend": 0.081567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7755.403677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.14795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086218, "excess_performance": -0.030445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030075, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086218, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.922259, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28572, "relative_activity": 6.16068, "balance": 1.922259, "dry_up": 2.725807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019981, "annualized_volatility": 0.166953, "from_high_reference": -0.002299, "from_low_reference": 0.258782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9057.869596, "fair_value_reference": 7755.403677, "structural_low": 8300.397461, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009191, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.000765, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.075286, "worst_return": -0.136045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.001919, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007701, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.101099, "worst_return": -0.055789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024845, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.005081, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206027, "worst_return": -0.037761, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.640698, "energy": 86.973821, "activity_lines": [ 9583.330599, 9445.120348, 9226.370392, 9114.559713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9492.981445, "volume": 17245, "typical_volume": 3250.0, "trend": 9035.143718, "fair_value": 7736.162507, "relative_strength": -2.183746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.732721, "energy": 83.089209, "activity_lines": [ 9574.738802, 9475.88869, 9270.157636, 9145.722772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9796.692383, "volume": 28572, "typical_volume": 4637.8, "trend": 9057.869596, "fair_value": 7755.403677, "relative_strength": -0.14795, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.372409, "energy": 74.917285, "activity_lines": [ 9648.138542, 9553.170384, 9338.518713, 9194.854944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }