{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5a20eec-ba62-4628-87de-c0155bfb65a1", "symbol": "SUSW", "name": "iShares MSCI World SRI UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.582, "architecture_energy": 52.467, "architecture_maturity": 63.738, "architecture_confidence": 75.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.11, "rotation_up": 46.5, "upward_expansion": 70.33, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.63, "downward_expansion": 20.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.759667, 13.768455, 13.539357, 13.250129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.02, "trend_reference": 12.930917, "distance_from_trend": 0.084223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.377196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.500177, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132015, "excess_performance": 0.080779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044768, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035002, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.307965, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1184493, "relative_activity": 1.845256, "balance": 1.307965, "dry_up": 1.216552, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020523, "annualized_volatility": 0.117923, "from_high_reference": -0.000713, "from_low_reference": 0.230904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.930917, "fair_value_reference": 11.377196, "structural_low": 11.645, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010088, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003158, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.105796, "worst_return": -0.059761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034425, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.016501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099606, "worst_return": -0.175174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08429, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.034099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124635, "worst_return": -0.065333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166091, "worst_return": -0.054305, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.112673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002616, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.076823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068127, 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[ 13.863167, 13.685227, 13.26756, 13.015952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.6775, "volume": 633898, "typical_volume": 647116.85, "trend": 12.78725, "fair_value": 11.297453, "relative_strength": 3.910072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.619194, "energy": 80.298087, "activity_lines": [ 13.8185, 13.713409, 13.340655, 13.076726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.665, "volume": 524550, "typical_volume": 631054.65, "trend": 12.837583, "fair_value": 11.322677, "relative_strength": 2.477909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.058739, "energy": 63.481662, "activity_lines": [ 13.764333, 13.727727, 13.40719, 13.133355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.51, "volume": 780739, "typical_volume": 626219.2, "trend": 12.882417, "fair_value": 11.348174, "relative_strength": 0.081973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.463377, "energy": 48.012629, "activity_lines": [ 13.667833, 13.703682, 13.452131, 13.176737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.02, "volume": 1184493, "typical_volume": 641912.45, "trend": 12.930917, "fair_value": 11.377196, "relative_strength": 3.500177, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.582215, "energy": 52.467329, "activity_lines": [ 13.759667, 13.768455, 13.539357, 13.250129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }