{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5a47a52-dde8-4a47-a1a9-fa5240b2b2e4", "symbol": "HOLM-A", "name": "Holmen AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.63, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.073, "architecture_energy": 15.77, "architecture_maturity": 95.216, "architecture_confidence": 61.564, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.96, "rotation_up": 38.71, "upward_expansion": 22.73, "deceleration": 41.18, "rotation_down": 22.76, "downward_expansion": 59.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 313.0, 308.8, 309.94155, 314.322779 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 322.0, "trend_reference": 321.134917, "distance_from_trend": 0.002694, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 367.790732, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124502, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.699845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05601, "excess_performance": -0.117504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029636, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124502, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.501216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16516, "relative_activity": 1.22806, "balance": 9.501216, "dry_up": 3.230518, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030578, "annualized_volatility": 0.177139, "from_high_reference": -0.123438, "from_low_reference": 0.091525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 321.134917, "fair_value_reference": 367.790732, "structural_low": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.631191, "energy": 69.905735, "activity_lines": [ 301.2, 304.218182, 309.740314, 315.843573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 302.0, "volume": 74185, "typical_volume": 11057.25, "trend": 322.378092, "fair_value": 368.3524, "relative_strength": -17.359284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.169236, "energy": 65.259998, "activity_lines": [ 301.0, 303.436364, 308.48659, 314.45521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 320.0, "volume": 45197, "typical_volume": 12921.1, "trend": 321.674581, "fair_value": 368.006399, "relative_strength": -13.142404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.976081, "energy": 24.297847, "activity_lines": [ 307.2, 306.018182, 309.096347, 314.301784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 322.0, "volume": 16516, "typical_volume": 13448.85, "trend": 321.134917, "fair_value": 367.790732, "relative_strength": -13.699845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.07275, "energy": 15.769982, "activity_lines": [ 313.0, 308.8, 309.94155, 314.322779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }