{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5a89011-6077-43d6-98fb-6d18b08eaee0", "symbol": "SITM", "name": "Sitime Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.355, "architecture_energy": 17.43, "architecture_maturity": 61.299, "architecture_confidence": 88.97, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.66, "rotation_up": 25.95, "upward_expansion": 47.32, "deceleration": 83.67, "rotation_down": 34.84, "downward_expansion": 29.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 611.297333, 620.606364, 637.568524, 591.718323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 725.28, "trend_reference": 527.677333, "distance_from_trend": 0.374476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 244.182051, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.970243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 51.193431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.73226, "excess_performance": 0.544807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.374476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234999, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.970243, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.215971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.511934, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.70868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.73226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3617336, "relative_activity": 1.419272, "balance": 0.295285, "dry_up": 0.986119, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173818, "annualized_volatility": 0.95512, "from_high_reference": -0.195751, "from_low_reference": 2.642427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 527.677333, "fair_value_reference": 244.182051, "structural_low": 305.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108117, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.103388, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.368612, "worst_return": -0.058509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.384494, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.337685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.519282, "worst_return": 0.157037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.258514, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.152585, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.897715, "worst_return": 0.140278, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.228097, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.982013, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.368694, "worst_return": 1.0875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174055, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034616, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.377968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231518, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.519923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030142, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.248019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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2594512.85, "trend": 497.209667, "fair_value": 232.318205, "relative_strength": 38.569709, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.830998, "energy": 23.233011, "activity_lines": [ 650.392, 674.555636, 629.400143, 569.466452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 554.97, "volume": 1978408, "typical_volume": 2615569.4, "trend": 503.488333, "fair_value": 235.07891, "relative_strength": 25.98037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.20079, "energy": 19.875424, "activity_lines": [ 611.267333, 647.581091, 629.220762, 573.192925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 554.46, "volume": 1922468, "typical_volume": 2598296.85, "trend": 509.4, "fair_value": 237.831859, "relative_strength": 26.094686, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.29845, "energy": 15.710461, "activity_lines": [ 583.634, 625.570364, 628.244762, 576.481419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 535.2, "volume": 2535176, "typical_volume": 2620653.95, "trend": 514.908, "fair_value": 240.385385, "relative_strength": 19.518581, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.776772, "energy": 14.588373, "activity_lines": [ 561.219333, 604.050545, 624.353, 578.145935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 725.28, "volume": 3617336, "typical_volume": 2548725.65, "trend": 527.677333, "fair_value": 244.182051, "relative_strength": 51.193431, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.354553, "energy": 17.430416, "activity_lines": [ 611.297333, 620.606364, 637.568524, 591.718323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }