{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a5b0d9eb-afd1-4bc5-872e-14ff36cb013c",
    "symbol": "MAI",
    "name": "Maintel Holdings Plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -82.393,
    "architecture_energy": 77.108,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.432,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.0,
        "rotation_up": 16.58,
        "upward_expansion": 14.48,
        "deceleration": 45.23,
        "rotation_down": 77.84,
        "downward_expansion": 92.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        0.867143,
        0.976398
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.65,
    "trend_reference": 1.116667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.41791,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.905417,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.658867,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -53.733599,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.54386,
    "excess_performance": -0.595095,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.41791,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.14377,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.658867,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.270672,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.537336,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.238953,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.54386,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 52680,
      "relative_activity": 3.883896,
      "balance": 0.0,
      "dry_up": 1.999031,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.15142,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.428402,
      "from_high_reference": -0.657895,
      "from_low_reference": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.116667,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.905417,
      "structural_low": 0.65,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": -0.036694,
        "positive_rate": 0.235294,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.617647,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053974,
        "regime_survival": 0.852941,
        "best_return": 0.330275,
        "worst_return": -0.382353,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.15,
        "positive_rate": 0.181818,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.818182,
        "median_excess_return": -0.200372,
        "regime_survival": 0.636364,
        "best_return": 0.285714,
        "worst_return": -0.355263,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.181445,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.208123,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.306122,
        "worst_return": -0.519608,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.382979,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.552312,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.877551,
        "worst_return": -0.611111,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021739,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.042553,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.095618,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.163636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
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        "return": -0.166667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
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        "return": -0.275,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-04-03",
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        "return": -0.12069,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.458333,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 17031.15,
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        "fair_value": 1.930417,
        "relative_strength": -43.928161,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.170608,
        "energy": 67.956899,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.725,
        "volume": 53667,
        "typical_volume": 11287.95,
        "trend": 1.181667,
        "fair_value": 1.925288,
        "relative_strength": -50.189376,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -83.57543,
        "energy": 71.810502,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.806667,
          0.851818,
          0.964643,
          1.065591
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.725,
        "volume": 39,
        "typical_volume": 11239.9,
        "trend": 1.160833,
        "fair_value": 1.919359,
        "relative_strength": -49.790759,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.16793,
        "energy": 70.127162,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.77,
          0.823636,
          0.93119,
          1.036129
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.725,
        "volume": 2071,
        "typical_volume": 11259.9,
        "trend": 1.14,
        "fair_value": 1.912468,
        "relative_strength": -49.366221,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.204985,
        "energy": 71.136528,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.746667,
          0.799091,
          0.901071,
          1.008011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.65,
        "volume": 52680,
        "typical_volume": 13563.7,
        "trend": 1.116667,
        "fair_value": 1.905417,
        "relative_strength": -53.733599,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -82.393461,
        "energy": 77.107967,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.706667,
          0.764545,
          0.867143,
          0.976398
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}