{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5bee4da-bb0f-45bd-8908-402cf5d8b1e6", "symbol": "AINC", "name": "C3.ai, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.188, "architecture_energy": 13.563, "architecture_maturity": 22.4, "architecture_confidence": 71.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.43, "rotation_up": 16.17, "upward_expansion": 9.07, "deceleration": 57.45, "rotation_down": 46.31, "downward_expansion": 68.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.0416, 8.076382, 8.152238, 8.098811 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.797, "trend_reference": 8.317667, "distance_from_trend": 0.057628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.319423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.492073, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.432568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027956, "excess_performance": -0.202203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057628, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.492073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070728, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.41983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2411, "relative_activity": 0.66525, "balance": 1.41983, "dry_up": 1.110728, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093738, "annualized_volatility": 0.672339, "from_high_reference": -0.485134, "from_low_reference": 0.34758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.317667, "fair_value_reference": 17.319423, "structural_low": 6.528, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055662, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087028, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.012271, "worst_return": -0.099052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.321842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101553, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 21.445, "volume": 0, 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"trend": 8.715167, "fair_value": 17.616798, "relative_strength": -45.659973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.606758, "energy": 38.026887, "activity_lines": [ 7.887133, 8.259691, 8.134205, 8.207467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.32, "volume": 10597, "typical_volume": 3677.8, "trend": 8.551433, "fair_value": 17.50841, "relative_strength": -46.768045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.096383, "energy": 46.510737, "activity_lines": [ 7.6398, 8.0712, 8.073895, 8.117456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.888, "volume": 1899, "typical_volume": 3522.0, "trend": 8.422567, "fair_value": 17.408198, "relative_strength": -40.969865, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.426187, "energy": 41.252954, "activity_lines": [ 7.689533, 7.989327, 8.070276, 8.074654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.797, "volume": 2411, "typical_volume": 3624.2, "trend": 8.317667, "fair_value": 17.319423, "relative_strength": -34.432568, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.187529, "energy": 13.562758, "activity_lines": [ 8.0416, 8.076382, 8.152238, 8.098811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }