{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5bfcd53-ef93-4708-ae30-b94991354f8f", "symbol": "MDI", "name": "Major Drilling Group International Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.352, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.841, "architecture_energy": 51.318, "architecture_maturity": 4.257, "architecture_confidence": 84.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.94, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 9.18, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 64.15, "downward_expansion": 84.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.559333, 14.798545, 15.455, 15.740839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.48, "trend_reference": 15.929333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.482308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.553323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001294, "excess_performance": -0.119128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.476774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 968200, "relative_activity": 1.215751, "balance": 0.452799, "dry_up": 1.061836, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080302, "annualized_volatility": 0.498289, "from_high_reference": -0.169973, "from_low_reference": 0.769143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.929333, "fair_value_reference": 10.482308, "structural_low": 13.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004988, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.023566, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.19603, "worst_return": -0.119018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.047788, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.18427, "worst_return": -0.081433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006472, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034197, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.473485, "worst_return": -0.068235, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.318985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.18793, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": 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"energy": 27.103142, "activity_lines": [ 15.618667, 16.006545, 16.263857, 16.18372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.51, "volume": 1623500, "typical_volume": 945370.0, "trend": 15.793667, "fair_value": 10.341154, "relative_strength": -4.51948, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.711025, "energy": 48.316949, "activity_lines": [ 15.114667, 15.712909, 16.080429, 16.103957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.22, "volume": 954900, "typical_volume": 893410.0, "trend": 15.827667, "fair_value": 10.37359, "relative_strength": -6.651422, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.644808, "energy": 61.24013, "activity_lines": [ 14.662, 15.384727, 15.880429, 16.00243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.12, "volume": 633200, "typical_volume": 816770.0, "trend": 15.864333, "fair_value": 10.403526, "relative_strength": -7.836719, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.802662, "energy": 62.879431, "activity_lines": [ 14.425333, 15.084545, 15.689952, 15.892258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 826200, "typical_volume": 810650.0, "trend": 15.882667, "fair_value": 10.436987, "relative_strength": -9.064281, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.363652, "energy": 73.734509, "activity_lines": [ 14.198667, 14.783636, 15.491952, 15.766817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.48, "volume": 968200, "typical_volume": 796380.0, "trend": 15.929333, "fair_value": 10.482308, "relative_strength": -2.553323, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.840684, "energy": 51.317963, "activity_lines": [ 14.559333, 14.798545, 15.455, 15.740839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }