{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5c357a7-adf3-4197-8b8d-a48661ee4423", "symbol": "EQQJ", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ Next Generation 100 UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.543, "architecture_energy": 54.778, "architecture_maturity": 67.317, "architecture_confidence": 73.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 46.01, "upward_expansion": 71.88, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.89, "downward_expansion": 21.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.287333, 47.381363, 46.294214, 44.743527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.470001, "trend_reference": 42.933, "distance_from_trend": 0.128968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.755929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394582, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.740199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.23349, "excess_performance": 0.062599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027402, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.494818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11495, "relative_activity": 1.161639, "balance": 1.494818, "dry_up": 1.302612, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026075, "annualized_volatility": 0.168262, "from_high_reference": -0.007982, "from_low_reference": 0.399048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.933, "fair_value_reference": 34.755929, "structural_low": 37.195, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005294, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.019811, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.072443, "worst_return": -0.047636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032864, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.007163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137083, "worst_return": -0.046246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.083994, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125245, "worst_return": 0.043782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101367, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141602, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0469, "active": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.142438, "energy": 65.52841, "activity_lines": [ 47.526999, 47.250364, 45.307095, 43.80943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.945, "volume": 9999, "typical_volume": 9576.2, "trend": 42.405833, "fair_value": 34.513365, "relative_strength": 3.382093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.834142, "energy": 62.836233, "activity_lines": [ 47.301666, 47.291, 45.644881, 44.119914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.259998, "volume": 18547, "typical_volume": 9402.9, "trend": 42.658166, "fair_value": 34.627179, "relative_strength": 1.094692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.374985, "energy": 49.54612, "activity_lines": [ 46.882999, 47.14409, 45.881357, 44.36857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.470001, "volume": 11495, "typical_volume": 9895.5, "trend": 42.933, "fair_value": 34.755929, "relative_strength": 2.740199, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.542674, "energy": 54.778204, "activity_lines": [ 47.287333, 47.381363, 46.294214, 44.743527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }