{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5d41ce1-3a7e-4343-863e-7ac8e4d36518", "symbol": "PRGS", "name": "Progress Software Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.323, "architecture_energy": 68.076, "architecture_maturity": 26.719, "architecture_confidence": 61.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.73, "rotation_up": 73.91, "upward_expansion": 64.32, "deceleration": 21.7, "rotation_down": 17.38, "downward_expansion": 22.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.604667, 38.464727, 35.113619, 34.325462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.84, "trend_reference": 34.716667, "distance_from_trend": 0.233989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.539944, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152354, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.302594, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003489, "excess_performance": -0.190943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.233989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152354, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277892, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.407733, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.966529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2220007, "relative_activity": 0.527438, "balance": 1.966529, "dry_up": 0.683484, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09877, "annualized_volatility": 0.648544, "from_high_reference": -0.09563, "from_low_reference": 0.798489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.716667, "fair_value_reference": 50.539944, "structural_low": 23.82, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011044, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.071017, "worst_return": -0.24133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016071, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190284, "worst_return": -0.235304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016485, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.053728, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080645, "worst_return": -0.334862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-10.89317, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.027523, "energy": 60.646827, "activity_lines": [ 38.334667, 35.963091, 33.230333, 33.421419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.59, "volume": 3450042, "typical_volume": 4317193.8, "trend": 34.700667, "fair_value": 50.641868, "relative_strength": -4.240155, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.68707, "energy": 65.561068, "activity_lines": [ 39.342667, 37.107636, 34.07981, 33.800344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.84, "volume": 2220007, "typical_volume": 4209040.0, "trend": 34.716667, "fair_value": 50.539944, "relative_strength": -3.302594, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.323192, "energy": 68.075746, "activity_lines": [ 40.604667, 38.464727, 35.113619, 34.325462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }