{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5d64980-26b7-4c9b-8902-4f8a243bac72", "symbol": "FIRE", "name": "Firefly AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.021, "architecture_energy": 56.691, "architecture_maturity": 29.198, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.62, "rotation_up": 17.34, "upward_expansion": 11.27, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 62.06, "downward_expansion": 86.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 161.0, 163.181818, 166.765006, 170.075301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 158.5, "trend_reference": 174.169925, "distance_from_trend": -0.089969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 169.506015, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.03269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.126686, "excess_performance": -0.18818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.269634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8254, "relative_activity": 1.533559, "balance": 0.269634, "dry_up": 1.008732, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061636, "annualized_volatility": 0.267521, "from_high_reference": -0.237041, "from_low_reference": 0.039325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 174.169925, "fair_value_reference": 169.506015, "structural_low": 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"activity_lines": [ 169.166667, 169.107546, 172.743147, 175.04215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 160.5, "volume": 6398, "typical_volume": 5285.55, "trend": 176.952617, "fair_value": 167.907467, "relative_strength": -17.750283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.311596, "energy": 35.172426, "activity_lines": [ 166.633333, 167.290909, 171.314035, 173.933922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 160.5, "volume": 6787, "typical_volume": 5376.55, "trend": 176.322116, "fair_value": 168.284517, "relative_strength": -16.405979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.320039, "energy": 33.214161, "activity_lines": [ 164.366667, 165.818182, 170.001973, 172.872462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 159.0, "volume": 2964, "typical_volume": 5242.65, "trend": 175.553481, "fair_value": 168.666309, "relative_strength": -17.999686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.60979, "energy": 52.610812, "activity_lines": [ 162.233333, 164.318182, 168.639825, 171.754906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 166.0, "volume": 3712, "typical_volume": 5207.65, "trend": 174.980408, "fair_value": 169.1102, "relative_strength": -15.116433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.374008, "energy": 47.850196, "activity_lines": [ 162.466667, 164.372727, 168.019074, 171.138553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.5, "volume": 8254, "typical_volume": 5382.25, "trend": 174.169925, "fair_value": 169.506015, "relative_strength": -20.03269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.021354, "energy": 56.691004, "activity_lines": [ 161.0, 163.181818, 166.765006, 170.075301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }