{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5d7dce7-7ed9-4ebb-baa6-5ccf8877402e", "symbol": "VTIP", "name": "Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.21, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.303, "architecture_energy": 63.614, "architecture_maturity": 13.768, "architecture_confidence": 82.338, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.17, "rotation_up": 13.28, "upward_expansion": 14.6, "deceleration": 35.31, "rotation_down": 72.09, "downward_expansion": 87.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 860.111999, 865.181234, 866.211256, 868.224365 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 850.330017, "trend_reference": 869.543048, "distance_from_trend": -0.022096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 895.919523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.836063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015379, "excess_performance": 0.039288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016112, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.154114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116773, "relative_activity": 17.254841, "balance": 0.154114, "dry_up": 4.787405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012865, "annualized_volatility": 0.097399, "from_high_reference": -0.107264, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 869.543048, "fair_value_reference": 895.919523, "structural_low": 850.330017, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005025, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.021298, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.029403, "worst_return": -0.025728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047751, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051831, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05499, "worst_return": 0.040512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.084578, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162592, "worst_return": 0.006563, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.30336, "energy": 63.613779, "activity_lines": [ 860.111999, 865.181234, 866.211256, 868.224365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }