{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5dca0cc-1e5c-4305-8192-b4410a8291ed", "symbol": "5455", "name": "Sheng Yi Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.904, "architecture_energy": 69.058, "architecture_maturity": 21.479, "architecture_confidence": 69.366, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.45, "rotation_up": 71.09, "upward_expansion": 90.7, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 12.52, "downward_expansion": 15.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.469999, 28.035454, 26.993333, 26.510968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.85, "trend_reference": 26.383333, "distance_from_trend": 0.093493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.657692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307451, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.069701, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02305, "excess_performance": -0.418322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17506, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.555368, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129100, "relative_activity": 0.980109, "balance": 1.555368, "dry_up": 0.639804, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054126, "annualized_volatility": 0.320989, "from_high_reference": -0.136228, "from_low_reference": 0.311364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.383333, "fair_value_reference": 41.657692, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004686, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025487, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038532, "worst_return": -0.02916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001715, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001715, "worst_return": 0.001715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.022298, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022298, "worst_return": -0.022298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.020583, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.769085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.020583, "worst_return": 1.020583, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-08-19", "end": "2022-10-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-10-21", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.028369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.915584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052786, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040193, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.542373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058716, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 27.0, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 10250.0, "trend": 27.963333, "fair_value": 24.740064, "relative_strength": -10.990753, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.320644, 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.867217, "energy": 37.91373, "activity_lines": [ 27.036666, 26.127273, 25.545, 25.878495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.5, "volume": 141380, "typical_volume": 144043.45, "trend": 26.49, "fair_value": 41.671474, "relative_strength": -34.466183, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.18184, "energy": 46.224808, "activity_lines": [ 27.293333, 26.459091, 25.738333, 25.94086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.1, "volume": 36124, "typical_volume": 144324.15, "trend": 26.46, "fair_value": 41.653526, "relative_strength": -30.158691, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.619481, "energy": 40.108721, "activity_lines": [ 27.25, 26.677273, 25.896905, 25.980215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 152000, "typical_volume": 145424.15, "trend": 26.47, "fair_value": 41.658654, "relative_strength": -27.523446, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.880083, "energy": 45.310902, "activity_lines": [ 27.6, 27.09, 26.17, 26.098925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 133165.05, "trend": 26.433333, "fair_value": 41.652885, "relative_strength": -25.789862, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.589505, "energy": 44.967404, "activity_lines": [ 27.883333, 27.441818, 26.440952, 26.216989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.549999, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 125515.05, "trend": 26.41, "fair_value": 41.656731, "relative_strength": -26.204152, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.277051, "energy": 55.179859, "activity_lines": [ 28.169999, 27.760909, 26.714047, 26.353548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.85, "volume": 129100, "typical_volume": 131720.05, "trend": 26.383333, "fair_value": 41.657692, "relative_strength": -27.069701, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.903736, "energy": 69.058234, "activity_lines": [ 28.469999, 28.035454, 26.993333, 26.510968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }