{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5f70fea-ae95-4b0d-8b98-d11ccf421c3d", "symbol": "IPCO", "name": "International Petroleum Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.068, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.737, "architecture_energy": 34.258, "architecture_maturity": 18.023, "architecture_confidence": 73.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 12.04, "deceleration": 58.66, "rotation_down": 48.77, "downward_expansion": 49.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.130667, 31.365818, 33.03481, 33.484366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.58, "trend_reference": 33.069667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.428526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.153474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017976, "excess_performance": -0.102445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.42707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1066000, "relative_activity": 1.715053, "balance": 0.314678, "dry_up": 1.564664, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069528, "annualized_volatility": 0.315534, "from_high_reference": -0.225234, "from_low_reference": 0.474446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.069667, "fair_value_reference": 21.428526, "structural_low": 28.459999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022261, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020891, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.184573, "worst_return": -0.057927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024714, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.414141, "worst_return": -0.120427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.242433, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.180803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292948, "worst_return": 0.191919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.327841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.176955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.468354, "worst_return": 0.187328, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001808, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15466, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042347, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013548, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.15, "volume": 446200, "typical_volume": 432200.0, "trend": 12.547333, "fair_value": 8.903269, "relative_strength": -5.893513, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.020441, "energy": 17.141121, "activity_lines": [ 12.173333, 11.926727, 11.86881, 12.141656 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 12.39, "volume": 419000, "typical_volume": 426880.0, "trend": 12.458, "fair_value": 8.965064, "relative_strength": -3.990941, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.810655, "energy": 15.741486, "activity_lines": [ 12.264, 12.051091, 11.892571, 12.131505 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 12.94, "volume": 442600, "typical_volume": 424425.0, "trend": 12.430667, "fair_value": 9.031154, "relative_strength": -3.095191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.46527, "energy": 36.593777, "activity_lines": [ 12.509333, 12.261091, 11.976, 12.162602 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 13.09, "volume": 333800, "typical_volume": 416915.0, "trend": 12.443333, "fair_value": 9.098974, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.249248, "energy": 22.006042, "activity_lines": [ 33.106666, 34.582545, 35.175333, 34.008925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.690001, "volume": 23100, "typical_volume": 755390.0, "trend": 32.048, "fair_value": 20.81859, "relative_strength": -3.448675, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.730265, "energy": 39.661654, "activity_lines": [ 32.090667, 33.707636, 34.786714, 33.927935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.440001, "volume": 464700, "typical_volume": 730320.0, "trend": 32.210667, "fair_value": 20.938269, "relative_strength": -4.470098, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.698908, "energy": 59.702857, "activity_lines": [ 31.258, 32.892, 34.368571, 33.824194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.0, "volume": 445800, "typical_volume": 702920.0, "trend": 32.433, "fair_value": 21.06032, "relative_strength": -2.718437, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.315525, "energy": 61.602392, "activity_lines": [ 30.932667, 32.313637, 34.005429, 33.746086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.74, "volume": 676500, "typical_volume": 670580.0, "trend": 32.669333, "fair_value": 21.187244, "relative_strength": -0.801779, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.136379, "energy": 53.705581, "activity_lines": [ 31.113334, 31.955091, 33.713381, 33.701376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.6, "volume": 1701800, "typical_volume": 686635.0, "trend": 32.874333, "fair_value": 21.311923, "relative_strength": -0.948206, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.226637, "energy": 36.074584, "activity_lines": [ 31.302, 31.699637, 33.416619, 33.632387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.58, "volume": 1066000, "typical_volume": 621555.0, "trend": 33.069667, "fair_value": 21.428526, "relative_strength": -7.153474, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.737463, "energy": 34.25779, "activity_lines": [ 31.130667, 31.365818, 33.03481, 33.484366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }