{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5f78f75-e2b6-4664-a2a4-e121964fd847", "symbol": "GPGI", "name": "GPGI, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.441, "architecture_energy": 24.629, "architecture_maturity": 61.899, "architecture_confidence": 59.741, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.91, "rotation_up": 23.7, "upward_expansion": 15.62, "deceleration": 61.53, "rotation_down": 38.87, "downward_expansion": 60.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 14.449273, 14.220137, 15.142212 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.99, "trend_reference": 17.106604, "distance_from_trend": -0.12373, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.888563, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.337859, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.386973, "excess_performance": -0.512598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12373, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022472, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.386973, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.908058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6275633, "relative_activity": 0.504821, "balance": 0.908058, "dry_up": 0.520689, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120386, "annualized_volatility": 0.602013, "from_high_reference": -0.440081, "from_low_reference": 0.336007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.106604, "fair_value_reference": 11.888563, "structural_low": 11.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.027416, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.003163, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.271429, "worst_return": -0.293224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07455, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.515401, "worst_return": -0.197041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.433265, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.293299, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.597961, "worst_return": -0.264798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.150765, 14.549418, 16.028942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.51, "volume": 7334499, "typical_volume": 16758023.35, "trend": 17.710982, "fair_value": 11.725618, "relative_strength": -27.713485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.084051, "energy": 22.695418, "activity_lines": [ 15.046667, 14.315045, 14.451236, 15.811537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.02, "volume": 6341190, "typical_volume": 16138657.45, "trend": 17.52785, "fair_value": 11.777865, "relative_strength": -29.557801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.122391, "energy": 16.556573, "activity_lines": [ 14.698, 14.378727, 14.344174, 15.573409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 5940270, "typical_volume": 14893678.7, "trend": 17.345709, "fair_value": 11.827044, "relative_strength": -34.167629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.344633, "energy": 29.411358, "activity_lines": [ 14.102667, 14.258364, 14.189045, 15.294193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.99, "volume": 6275633, "typical_volume": 12431399.45, "trend": 17.106604, "fair_value": 11.888563, "relative_strength": -27.337859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.440828, "energy": 24.628643, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 14.449273, 14.220137, 15.142212 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }