{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5f7fd0a-3b3a-4800-88a7-dcc94ab3607d", "symbol": "QH9", "name": "ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -62.461, "architecture_energy": 84.891, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.41, "rotation_up": 16.02, "upward_expansion": 27.54, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 84.01, "downward_expansion": 71.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.0294, 9.5702, 11.184305, 11.23188 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.522, "trend_reference": 10.810633, "distance_from_trend": -0.396705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.572327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.355417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192622, "excess_performance": -0.257262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.396705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129689, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.860325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.83599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62349, "relative_activity": 1.348563, "balance": 0.727375, "dry_up": 0.849273, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231807, "annualized_volatility": 0.648814, "from_high_reference": -0.618864, "from_low_reference": 0.058766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.810633, "fair_value_reference": 7.572327, "structural_low": 6.522, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051358, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011437, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12643, "worst_return": 0.022358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.216362, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.090751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245527, "worst_return": 0.187197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.608534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.487029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.084482, "worst_return": 0.132585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.945388, 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"2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.012702, "energy": 18.79347, "activity_lines": [ 12.224667, 12.8008, 12.717838, 11.828727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.654, "volume": 25359, "typical_volume": 43652.0, "trend": 10.713367, "fair_value": 7.572074, "relative_strength": 19.395673, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.430178, "energy": 17.776622, "activity_lines": [ 11.872, 12.530145, 12.688986, 11.899262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.21, "volume": 13924, "typical_volume": 43277.15, "trend": 10.806367, "fair_value": 7.579752, "relative_strength": 5.19875, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.932628, "energy": 29.779823, "activity_lines": [ 11.1964, 12.056182, 12.508295, 11.866787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.739, "volume": 38678, "typical_volume": 44519.95, "trend": 10.841667, "fair_value": 7.57919, "relative_strength": -11.031298, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.228108, "energy": 57.213086, "activity_lines": [ 10.244067, 11.358945, 12.179329, 11.733409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.385, "volume": 42109, "typical_volume": 45113.65, "trend": 10.839033, "fair_value": 7.575231, "relative_strength": -26.218484, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.590908, "energy": 72.375482, "activity_lines": [ 9.143533, 10.489109, 11.719862, 11.510398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.522, "volume": 62349, "typical_volume": 46233.65, "trend": 10.810633, "fair_value": 7.572327, "relative_strength": -36.355417, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -62.460519, "energy": 84.890876, "activity_lines": [ 8.0294, 9.5702, 11.184305, 11.23188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }