{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5fa8d19-f60d-4e33-a016-1ab6bdd11e27", "symbol": "MEOH", "name": "Methanex Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.16, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.301, "architecture_energy": 11.787, "architecture_maturity": 26.859, "architecture_confidence": 79.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.77, "rotation_up": 45.43, "upward_expansion": 32.48, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 21.53, "downward_expansion": 23.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.294, 52.915411, 54.952269, 55.202032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.27, "trend_reference": 54.278832, "distance_from_trend": -0.018586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.3311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.649172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13571, "excess_performance": -0.051744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206605, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3343496, "relative_activity": 0.586411, "balance": 0.782587, "dry_up": 0.861148, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101128, "annualized_volatility": 0.495247, "from_high_reference": -0.199304, "from_low_reference": 0.684219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.278832, "fair_value_reference": 43.3311, "structural_low": 43.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027813, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.003632, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.198389, "worst_return": -0.060723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138433, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.062159, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.259717, "worst_return": -0.055388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11711, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188377, "worst_return": 0.045474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012009, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002334, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07131, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131131, "active": 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.653245, "energy": 55.616445, "activity_lines": [ 49.006262, 52.674168, 55.577377, 54.790619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.81, "volume": 5320903, "typical_volume": 6516900.6, "trend": 53.019486, "fair_value": 43.086864, "relative_strength": 7.984208, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.365539, "energy": 49.590927, "activity_lines": [ 50.301333, 52.566129, 55.451799, 54.940393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.86, "volume": 4116588, "typical_volume": 6337780.25, "trend": 53.551049, "fair_value": 43.177293, "relative_strength": 11.196876, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.678214, "energy": 21.319403, "activity_lines": [ 52.238667, 52.743205, 55.404183, 55.123652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.55, "volume": 6858809, "typical_volume": 6174919.75, "trend": 54.054073, "fair_value": 43.261047, "relative_strength": 9.355422, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.119587, "energy": 7.435765, "activity_lines": [ 53.894, 52.99684, 55.296694, 55.252617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.27, "volume": 3343496, "typical_volume": 5701629.95, "trend": 54.278832, "fair_value": 43.3311, "relative_strength": -0.649172, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.300576, "energy": 11.786947, "activity_lines": [ 54.294, 52.915411, 54.952269, 55.202032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }