{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5fd1f6e-f8ef-4000-b20c-2e375f9aa7c3", "symbol": "601238", "name": "Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.491, "architecture_energy": 62.838, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 29.4, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 55.54, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.26, 5.278909, 5.707571, 6.150258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 6.759667, "distance_from_trend": -0.223334, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.142987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.355273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.242515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.337121, "excess_performance": -0.293917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.355273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.337121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143263483, "relative_activity": 1.532593, "balance": 0.372713, "dry_up": 1.677543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070623, "annualized_volatility": 0.254472, "from_high_reference": -0.451411, "from_low_reference": 0.089212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.759667, "fair_value_reference": 8.142987, "structural_low": 4.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.001244, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.02318, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.310822, "worst_return": -0.139344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005714, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.079074, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.155759, "worst_return": -0.286107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061226, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.140589, "worst_return": -0.141791, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.45741, "energy": 88.963183, "activity_lines": [ 5.271333, 5.593091, 6.172333, 6.608301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.04, "volume": 178944995, "typical_volume": 87605591.5, "trend": 7.048667, "fair_value": 8.244793, "relative_strength": -28.636509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.60607, "energy": 72.435068, "activity_lines": [ 5.157333, 5.436364, 6.018238, 6.471527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.1, "volume": 142086604, "typical_volume": 88688606.2, "trend": 6.944333, "fair_value": 8.208408, "relative_strength": -28.124938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.07444, "energy": 69.100799, "activity_lines": [ 5.119333, 5.326182, 5.88419, 6.345806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.52, "volume": 162957613, "typical_volume": 92361738.45, "trend": 6.856667, "fair_value": 8.176344, "relative_strength": -21.992752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.250965, "energy": 65.78962, "activity_lines": [ 5.25, 5.319636, 5.803143, 6.253914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 143263483, "typical_volume": 93477870.25, "trend": 6.759667, "fair_value": 8.142987, "relative_strength": -27.242515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.490616, "energy": 62.83761, "activity_lines": [ 5.26, 5.278909, 5.707571, 6.150258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }