{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a60257f6-63d8-41fd-b4d7-9e41be6f999f", "symbol": "MSFT34", "name": "Microsoft Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.061, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.688, "architecture_energy": 62.447, "architecture_maturity": 20.4, "architecture_confidence": 71.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.62, "rotation_up": 66.44, "upward_expansion": 54.35, "deceleration": 30.74, "rotation_down": 21.68, "downward_expansion": 24.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.287334, 89.391091, 87.712325, 86.988116 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 105.440002, "trend_reference": 87.50199, "distance_from_trend": 0.205001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 94.046583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.051937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.215657, "excess_performance": 0.272705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.205001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203452, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020519, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.342905, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215657, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.980511, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3664936, "relative_activity": 2.112541, "balance": 1.980511, "dry_up": 1.479855, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065671, "annualized_volatility": 0.440409, "from_high_reference": -0.149591, "from_low_reference": 0.376501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.50199, "fair_value_reference": 94.046583, "structural_low": 76.599998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021055, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026192, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.081661, "worst_return": -0.07352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06929, "worst_return": -0.113702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0385, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010118, "worst_return": -0.066883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.910004, "volume": 1227582, "typical_volume": 1528640.7, "trend": 87.797514, "fair_value": 93.575044, "relative_strength": -23.866268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.349047, "energy": 31.513415, "activity_lines": [ 82.525333, 83.371818, 84.441353, 85.151076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.38, "volume": 3425741, "typical_volume": 1627891.05, "trend": 87.548367, "fair_value": 93.785253, "relative_strength": -8.460162, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.335208, "energy": 19.387845, "activity_lines": [ 87.834, 85.836909, 85.766284, 85.833817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.440002, "volume": 3664936, "typical_volume": 1734847.35, "trend": 87.50199, "fair_value": 94.046583, "relative_strength": 2.051937, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.687513, "energy": 62.44673, "activity_lines": [ 94.287334, 89.391091, 87.712325, 86.988116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }