{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6082b7a-8452-42f6-af55-a9984b8250e3", "symbol": "QQQX", "name": "Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.486, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.184, "architecture_energy": 29.464, "architecture_maturity": 41.244, "architecture_confidence": 81.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.28, "rotation_up": 39.26, "upward_expansion": 65.09, "deceleration": 89.07, "rotation_down": 25.86, "downward_expansion": 12.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.918333, 29.850595, 29.758424, 29.168215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.51, "trend_reference": 28.384145, "distance_from_trend": 0.074896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.979509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.073875, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.160992, "excess_performance": -0.026462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008041, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.110492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 489901, "relative_activity": 0.891128, "balance": 1.110492, "dry_up": 1.097678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043396, "annualized_volatility": 0.213079, "from_high_reference": -0.019585, "from_low_reference": 0.26596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.384145, "fair_value_reference": 22.979509, "structural_low": 24.755945, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017205, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004658, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.067401, "worst_return": -0.063734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003317, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11994, "worst_return": -0.056607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085983, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170847, "worst_return": 0.009641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043564, "active": 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34.171341, "activity_lines": [ 29.930774, 29.936341, 29.404084, 28.749402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.61, "volume": 1111979, "typical_volume": 624422.05, "trend": 28.123888, "fair_value": 22.76999, "relative_strength": -1.263645, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.772974, "energy": 26.335217, "activity_lines": [ 29.838, 29.87501, 29.49774, 28.851108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.495, "volume": 432628, "typical_volume": 610571.3, "trend": 28.19909, "fair_value": 22.834048, "relative_strength": -0.046855, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.274011, "energy": 27.758757, "activity_lines": [ 29.746333, 29.800509, 29.566265, 28.939567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.51, "volume": 379304, "typical_volume": 560625.45, "trend": 28.276861, "fair_value": 22.903044, "relative_strength": -0.504313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.297457, "energy": 22.785686, "activity_lines": [ 29.693333, 29.73093, 29.621588, 29.024142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.51, "volume": 489901, "typical_volume": 549754.1, "trend": 28.384145, "fair_value": 22.979509, "relative_strength": -2.073875, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.183734, "energy": 29.464165, "activity_lines": [ 29.918333, 29.850595, 29.758424, 29.168215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }