{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a60a5464-6b26-406e-adcd-af757586bd1e", "symbol": "300238", "name": "Guanhao Biotech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.42, "architecture_energy": 48.803, "architecture_maturity": 70.829, "architecture_confidence": 88.829, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 7.75, "deceleration": 60.02, "rotation_down": 47.94, "downward_expansion": 78.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.136, 11.229636, 11.86219, 12.691935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.67, "trend_reference": 13.835667, "distance_from_trend": -0.156528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.148782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112465, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.133572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.263722, "excess_performance": -0.271122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027344, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263722, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.420502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23182649, "relative_activity": 0.951937, "balance": 0.420502, "dry_up": 1.239257, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093797, "annualized_volatility": 0.327607, "from_high_reference": -0.380902, "from_low_reference": 0.14524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.835667, "fair_value_reference": 13.148782, "structural_low": 10.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.030408, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": 0.005158, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.227119, "worst_return": -0.269199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.056335, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017478, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.604265, "worst_return": -0.211268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10978, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.048909, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.425355, "worst_return": -0.300746, "sufficient": true }, 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02209, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.266116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042315, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", 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"volume": 38365152, "typical_volume": 26524745.0, "trend": 14.149333, "fair_value": 13.220128, "relative_strength": -25.565608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.558785, "energy": 53.616789, "activity_lines": [ 11.507333, 11.520182, 12.481524, 13.284495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.39, "volume": 29710976, "typical_volume": 26234461.75, "trend": 14.017, "fair_value": 13.191218, "relative_strength": -30.945583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.614814, "energy": 59.134462, "activity_lines": [ 11.160667, 11.272545, 12.19481, 13.041957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.83, "volume": 29460390, "typical_volume": 25990085.15, "trend": 13.908333, "fair_value": 13.165385, "relative_strength": -26.044785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.893456, "energy": 56.66369, "activity_lines": [ 11.005333, 11.156, 11.975952, 12.836344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.67, "volume": 23182649, "typical_volume": 24353135.3, "trend": 13.835667, "fair_value": 13.148782, "relative_strength": -23.133572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.419704, "energy": 48.803242, "activity_lines": [ 11.136, 11.229636, 11.86219, 12.691935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }