{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a60aeadd-9315-454c-90bd-a049e6a6ee84", "symbol": "600850", "name": "CETC Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.586, "architecture_energy": 37.968, "architecture_maturity": 78.794, "architecture_confidence": 80.562, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.21, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 4.58, "deceleration": 59.94, "rotation_down": 46.31, "downward_expansion": 75.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.988667, 15.027848, 15.746327, 16.755096 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.43, "trend_reference": 18.613226, "distance_from_trend": -0.17102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.476686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.884006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.327471, "excess_performance": -0.284267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17102, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.045362, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92151217, "relative_activity": 1.00807, "balance": 1.045362, "dry_up": 0.854727, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136432, "annualized_volatility": 0.559973, "from_high_reference": -0.479996, "from_low_reference": 0.150634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.613226, "fair_value_reference": 18.476686, "structural_low": 13.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.012644, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011683, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.268382, "worst_return": -0.220952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03174, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.170565, "worst_return": -0.228228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0051, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.06041, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.750156, "worst_return": -0.170244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 55195032, "typical_volume": 87822028.25, "trend": 19.574443, "fair_value": 18.534775, "relative_strength": -28.212717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.588545, "energy": 65.867254, "activity_lines": [ 14.889063, 15.579661, 16.292673, 17.591096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.62, "volume": 59148262, "typical_volume": 87268202.6, "trend": 19.229856, "fair_value": 18.505151, "relative_strength": -31.575048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.933072, "energy": 57.637653, "activity_lines": [ 14.402, 15.125269, 15.950722, 17.206938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.71, "volume": 106039898, "typical_volume": 89611017.6, "trend": 18.9137, "fair_value": 18.488873, "relative_strength": -20.897313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.853541, "energy": 42.714109, "activity_lines": [ 14.780667, 15.08214, 15.848681, 16.97985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.43, "volume": 92151217, "typical_volume": 91413472.35, "trend": 18.613226, "fair_value": 18.476686, "relative_strength": -23.884006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.586007, "energy": 37.968009, "activity_lines": [ 14.988667, 15.027848, 15.746327, 16.755096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }