{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a610a12e-695a-432f-b672-42414ca76015", "symbol": "OXBR", "name": "Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.572, "architecture_energy": 45.309, "architecture_maturity": 24.767, "architecture_confidence": 67.289, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.45, "rotation_up": 61.0, "upward_expansion": 79.22, "deceleration": 58.66, "rotation_down": 15.68, "downward_expansion": 5.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.433333, 1.366513, 1.205517, 1.129088 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.33, "trend_reference": 1.077927, "distance_from_trend": 0.23385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.836698, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.886167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.198198, "excess_performance": 0.010745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.23385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205347, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.340204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.198198, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.308536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104889, "relative_activity": 0.04677, "balance": 1.308536, "dry_up": 0.072856, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211962, "annualized_volatility": 0.855216, "from_high_reference": -0.534965, "from_low_reference": 1.015152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.077927, "fair_value_reference": 1.836698, "structural_low": 0.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.01245, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.029345, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.638655, "worst_return": -0.441989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.131313, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.078114, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.875912, "worst_return": -0.624514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02966, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067428, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.383838, "worst_return": -0.29562, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.326531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.287129, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.763359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.254902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": 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0.974075, 0.937427, 0.973619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.28, "volume": 291382, "typical_volume": 2206368.25, "trend": 1.046593, "fair_value": 1.842512, "relative_strength": -20.288138, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.472391, "energy": 31.613539, "activity_lines": [ 1.07388, 1.032389, 0.969319, 0.988398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.7, "volume": 326255, "typical_volume": 2221137.05, "trend": 1.05626, "fair_value": 1.841871, "relative_strength": 5.692451, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.067514, "energy": 67.843756, "activity_lines": [ 1.29944, 1.158085, 1.040686, 1.030553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 374995, "typical_volume": 2237248.9, "trend": 1.067927, "fair_value": 1.840461, "relative_strength": 5.466893, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.092163, "energy": 72.093881, "activity_lines": [ 1.439653, 1.252327, 1.099959, 1.065633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.57, "volume": 51827, "typical_volume": 2236408.35, "trend": 1.07926, "fair_value": 1.839583, "relative_strength": 6.406849, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.578224, "energy": 82.651445, "activity_lines": [ 1.527333, 1.329662, 1.15385, 1.098025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 121854, "typical_volume": 2239402.65, "trend": 1.07926, "fair_value": 1.839647, "relative_strength": -10.865546, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.082827, "energy": 75.991397, "activity_lines": [ 1.487333, 1.348815, 1.17998, 1.112911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.33, "volume": 104889, "typical_volume": 2242667.35, "trend": 1.077927, "fair_value": 1.836698, "relative_strength": -12.886167, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.572274, "energy": 45.309153, "activity_lines": [ 1.433333, 1.366513, 1.205517, 1.129088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }