{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a61bd737-1b67-444b-8465-a70d25d10e53", "symbol": "002491", "name": "Tongding Interconnection Information Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.036, "architecture_energy": 28.821, "architecture_maturity": 58.434, "architecture_confidence": 73.78, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.29, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 43.55, "deceleration": 87.44, "rotation_down": 50.22, "downward_expansion": 37.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.378, 20.245273, 21.267667, 19.400538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.26, "trend_reference": 16.328, "distance_from_trend": 0.05708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.082692, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.436926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 47.187419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.198726, "excess_performance": 1.191326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.527266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.436926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.175771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.471874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.85592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.198726, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750346305, "relative_activity": 1.110762, "balance": 1.398131, "dry_up": 1.103007, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.306266, "annualized_volatility": 1.085541, "from_high_reference": -0.547101, "from_low_reference": 2.580913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.328, "fair_value_reference": 7.082692, "structural_low": 8.24, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020964, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.015456, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.174267, "worst_return": -0.117137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.086979, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014024, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.035831, "worst_return": -0.150407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069182, "worst_return": -0.086319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.247493, "energy": 55.767103, "activity_lines": [ 27.108, 26.376909, 22.568048, 19.272022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.16, "volume": 603768935, "typical_volume": 694254303.3, "trend": 15.413667, "fair_value": 6.903462, "relative_strength": 60.460599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.631443, "energy": 26.437787, "activity_lines": [ 23.627333, 24.900364, 22.388095, 19.409247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.71, "volume": 836303642, "typical_volume": 670645821.8, "trend": 15.698667, "fair_value": 6.962756, "relative_strength": 43.748106, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.154443, "energy": 23.747364, "activity_lines": [ 20.034667, 23.223818, 22.038762, 19.428366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.96, "volume": 790010372, "typical_volume": 664894441.05, "trend": 15.952667, "fair_value": 7.01109, "relative_strength": 27.760208, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.209141, "energy": 31.181611, "activity_lines": [ 16.916667, 21.354182, 21.502524, 19.316194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.26, "volume": 750346305, "typical_volume": 675523905.45, "trend": 16.328, "fair_value": 7.082692, "relative_strength": 47.187419, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.036404, "energy": 28.821294, "activity_lines": [ 16.378, 20.245273, 21.267667, 19.400538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }