{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a622133e-a7a1-4b12-b035-4f2de4830c10", "symbol": "FORH", "name": "Formidable ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.526, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.86, "architecture_energy": 26.795, "architecture_maturity": 13.641, "architecture_confidence": 95.142, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.17, "rotation_up": 21.27, "upward_expansion": 5.3, "deceleration": 48.89, "rotation_down": 50.69, "downward_expansion": 78.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.358367, 24.366193, 24.581184, 24.657168 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.0296, "trend_reference": 24.777017, "distance_from_trend": 0.010194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.724149, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.544285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00222, "excess_performance": -0.127845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.325336, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6642, "relative_activity": 2.001567, "balance": 0.325336, "dry_up": 1.647707, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021944, "annualized_volatility": 0.145003, "from_high_reference": -0.083443, "from_low_reference": 0.139392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.777017, "fair_value_reference": 22.724149, "structural_low": 23.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0052, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.010126, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.070836, "worst_return": -0.052234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005837, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055353, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.182466, "worst_return": -0.075815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063822, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.107391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092818, "worst_return": -0.031374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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24.0544, "volume": 1644, "typical_volume": 2628.15, "trend": 24.78325, "fair_value": 22.695527, "relative_strength": -9.454916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.325485, "energy": 66.11941, "activity_lines": [ 24.16874, 24.376731, 24.613897, 24.69536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.935, "volume": 12234, "typical_volume": 3202.4, "trend": 24.773327, "fair_value": 22.705797, "relative_strength": -10.646139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.956691, "energy": 69.652925, "activity_lines": [ 24.06552, 24.263073, 24.543694, 24.640634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0296, "volume": 6642, "typical_volume": 3318.4, "trend": 24.777017, "fair_value": 22.724149, "relative_strength": -9.544285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.859843, "energy": 26.794559, "activity_lines": [ 24.358367, 24.366193, 24.581184, 24.657168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }