{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6243427-4be8-43ae-b829-b62f2b34ecec", "symbol": "TOLINS", "name": "TOLINS TYRES LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.079, "architecture_energy": 34.781, "architecture_maturity": 16.184, "architecture_confidence": 89.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.3, "rotation_up": 17.48, "upward_expansion": 6.9, "deceleration": 42.29, "rotation_down": 54.9, "downward_expansion": 77.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.539999, 103.601091, 104.246476, 104.88514 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 102.139999, "trend_reference": 107.777, "distance_from_trend": -0.052302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 144.389597, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.020355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.193143, "excess_performance": -0.149434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.332307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192499, "relative_activity": 0.50579, "balance": 1.332307, "dry_up": 0.444397, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061808, "annualized_volatility": 0.398089, "from_high_reference": -0.494356, "from_low_reference": 0.23001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.777, "fair_value_reference": 144.389597, "structural_low": 83.040001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.056842, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061488, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.056842, "worst_return": -0.056842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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-19.202751, "energy": 10.927831, "activity_lines": [ 106.014668, 104.973819, 104.767334, 106.931957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.830002, "volume": 198141, "typical_volume": 441697.2, "trend": 110.971, "fair_value": 145.703334, "relative_strength": -20.405841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.702444, "energy": 14.821145, "activity_lines": [ 105.114002, 104.585092, 104.64181, 106.343785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.699997, "volume": 181164, "typical_volume": 432714.8, "trend": 109.959, "fair_value": 145.260001, "relative_strength": -18.021755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.033776, "energy": 20.800099, "activity_lines": [ 104.134667, 104.307637, 104.543239, 105.810172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.209999, "volume": 104729, "typical_volume": 394457.85, "trend": 108.729, "fair_value": 144.820715, "relative_strength": -19.938264, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.337515, "energy": 28.136364, "activity_lines": [ 103.220667, 103.950546, 104.406191, 105.310237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.139999, "volume": 192499, "typical_volume": 380590.5, "trend": 107.777, "fair_value": 144.389597, "relative_strength": -20.020355, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.07933, "energy": 34.780528, "activity_lines": [ 102.539999, 103.601091, 104.246476, 104.88514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }