{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6262485-1c32-48f0-ac19-ab00ca643db5", "symbol": "XDWU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.629, "architecture_energy": 10.064, "architecture_maturity": 34.741, "architecture_confidence": 71.083, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.58, "rotation_up": 30.72, "upward_expansion": 62.22, "deceleration": 83.96, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 16.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.368, 42.559455, 42.31381, 42.231237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 41.360001, "trend_reference": 41.864333, "distance_from_trend": -0.012047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.893269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.887359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046559, "excess_performance": -0.124333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185329, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059256, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.610516, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78771, "relative_activity": 1.529167, "balance": 0.610516, "dry_up": 1.203333, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02521, "annualized_volatility": 0.177994, "from_high_reference": -0.059145, "from_low_reference": 0.165399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.864333, "fair_value_reference": 34.893269, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.157261, "energy": 57.187621, "activity_lines": [ 42.772333, 42.271091, 42.191786, 41.958753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.27, "volume": 68422, "typical_volume": 58223.2, "trend": 41.476167, "fair_value": 34.624231, "relative_strength": -5.159688, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.912497, "energy": 69.001258, "activity_lines": [ 43.025, 42.514909, 42.287143, 42.08514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.84, "volume": 38205, "typical_volume": 54248.75, "trend": 41.670667, "fair_value": 34.718237, "relative_strength": -3.67254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.675996, "energy": 72.735419, "activity_lines": [ 43.347, 42.828364, 42.435762, 42.237645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.994999, "volume": 62548, "typical_volume": 52627.1, "trend": 41.783667, "fair_value": 34.808045, "relative_strength": -8.134225, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.770105, "energy": 32.369894, "activity_lines": [ 42.921, 42.752273, 42.401691, 42.25857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.360001, "volume": 78771, "typical_volume": 51512.35, "trend": 41.864333, "fair_value": 34.893269, "relative_strength": -11.887359, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.62867, "energy": 10.063811, "activity_lines": [ 42.368, 42.559455, 42.31381, 42.231237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }