{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a626279f-0da6-40af-a9bf-1520c368eaf3", "symbol": "TCH-F40", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4A) composite INT. Equity Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.68, "architecture_energy": 67.323, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 53.3, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 535.86, 536.021818, 13890.715238, 22749.632688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 545.6, "trend_reference": 32776.363333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38339.877564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985769, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.742448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988494, "excess_performance": -1.017395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985769, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.302045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.860058, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.985511, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2816, "relative_activity": 1.354432, "balance": 1.985511, "dry_up": 0.948487, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.115201, "annualized_volatility": 6.387227, "from_high_reference": -0.98998, "from_low_reference": 0.051252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32776.363333, "fair_value_reference": 38339.877564, "structural_low": 519.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.007489, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022959, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.14799, "worst_return": -0.145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041459, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.189398, "worst_return": -0.064789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076485, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296797, "worst_return": -0.015023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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10080.669091, 25517.860952, 32082.741505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 532.0, "volume": 1811, "typical_volume": 2203.35, "trend": 37489.213333, "fair_value": 38973.374359, "relative_strength": -98.856959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.345863, "energy": 86.397647, "activity_lines": [ 536.86, 6274.589091, 22273.697143, 29598.775054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 528.1, "volume": 802, "typical_volume": 2084.3, "trend": 35910.15, "fair_value": 38760.413462, "relative_strength": -98.867767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.301809, "energy": 68.429147, "activity_lines": [ 533.513333, 3415.036364, 19255.72381, 27214.187097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 530.8, "volume": 2459, "typical_volume": 2055.65, "trend": 34366.843333, "fair_value": 38549.649359, "relative_strength": -98.803409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.158374, "energy": 68.127042, "activity_lines": [ 532.066667, 1504.918182, 16463.445238, 24931.648387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 545.6, "volume": 2816, "typical_volume": 2079.1, "trend": 32776.363333, "fair_value": 38339.877564, "relative_strength": -98.742448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.680102, "energy": 67.322881, "activity_lines": [ 535.86, 536.021818, 13890.715238, 22749.632688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }