{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6274a91-f251-45bf-8033-ea05f304bb03", "symbol": "VIOO", "name": "VANGUARD ADMIRAL FDS INC S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX FD ETF SHS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.575, "architecture_energy": 58.314, "architecture_maturity": 68.21, "architecture_confidence": 68.714, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 51.98, "upward_expansion": 80.49, "deceleration": 69.68, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 9.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.865333, 135.292722, 132.263127, 128.925277 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 137.99, "trend_reference": 125.109323, "distance_from_trend": 0.102955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.188567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.978097, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132551, "excess_performance": 0.006926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102955, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039781, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 597193, "relative_activity": 1.386227, "balance": 1.013932, "dry_up": 0.904032, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02892, "annualized_volatility": 0.149315, "from_high_reference": -0.012241, "from_low_reference": 0.363622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.109323, "fair_value_reference": 104.188567, "structural_low": 110.685, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.011165, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007576, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.045949, "worst_return": -0.082897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.024336, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.062893, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.125517, "worst_return": -0.122224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059174, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055229, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.153518, "worst_return": -0.170408, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": 6.302627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.006468, "energy": 59.470029, "activity_lines": [ 135.046, 134.006165, 130.453077, 127.324673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.86, "volume": 353056, "typical_volume": 420219.15, "trend": 124.39999, "fair_value": 103.881492, "relative_strength": 5.394334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.180742, "energy": 54.160149, "activity_lines": [ 134.878, 134.436171, 131.261935, 128.048502 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.99, "volume": 597193, "typical_volume": 430804.7, "trend": 125.109323, "fair_value": 104.188567, "relative_strength": 3.978097, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.575357, "energy": 58.313966, "activity_lines": [ 135.865333, 135.292722, 132.263127, 128.925277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }