{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a627dfa4-0dc8-4964-a648-75be398eb6c6", "symbol": "POCI", "name": "Precision Optics Corporation, Inc. Common stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.519, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.742, "architecture_energy": 36.299, "architecture_maturity": 41.448, "architecture_confidence": 67.75, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.92, "rotation_up": 14.3, "upward_expansion": 17.69, "deceleration": 58.72, "rotation_down": 66.43, "downward_expansion": 45.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.308, 4.658545, 4.821857, 4.756677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.22, "trend_reference": 4.71824, "distance_from_trend": -0.105599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.113246, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.191661, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251773, "excess_performance": -0.439227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174693, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.311167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 320132, "relative_activity": 1.479629, "balance": 1.311167, "dry_up": 0.898491, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157838, "annualized_volatility": 0.427143, "from_high_reference": -0.313821, "from_low_reference": 0.188732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.71824, "fair_value_reference": 5.113246, "structural_low": 3.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05988, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.077244, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.090698, "worst_return": -0.103254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.094256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.221996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15814, "worst_return": -0.238437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.123711, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009302, "worst_return": -0.23445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.206143, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.466162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.182622, "worst_return": -0.229665, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06252, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.250575, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02765, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.1, "volume": 23844, "typical_volume": 16948.3, "trend": 6.404387, "fair_value": 2.99342, "relative_strength": -2.222929, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.686575, "energy": 16.748675, "activity_lines": [ 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4.982423, 4.849883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.98, "volume": 147713, "typical_volume": 190834.35, "trend": 4.704073, "fair_value": 5.160721, "relative_strength": -7.258672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.539007, "energy": 22.947438, "activity_lines": [ 5.222667, 5.322182, 5.00615, 4.86947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.34, "volume": 156104, "typical_volume": 195517.4, "trend": 4.71274, "fair_value": 5.150657, "relative_strength": -15.168719, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.412615, "energy": 16.893029, "activity_lines": [ 4.873333, 5.157273, 4.966307, 4.845982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.3, "volume": 99202, "typical_volume": 197994.0, "trend": 4.715907, "fair_value": 5.138349, "relative_strength": -14.088169, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.279437, "energy": 23.698118, "activity_lines": [ 4.614, 4.989636, 4.922368, 4.819353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.24, "volume": 202151, "typical_volume": 205586.55, "trend": 4.715573, "fair_value": 5.125593, "relative_strength": -15.221217, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.759797, "energy": 30.258191, "activity_lines": [ 4.429333, 4.819636, 4.872952, 4.788649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.22, "volume": 320132, "typical_volume": 216359.7, "trend": 4.71824, "fair_value": 5.113246, "relative_strength": -19.191661, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.741891, "energy": 36.29887, "activity_lines": [ 4.308, 4.658545, 4.821857, 4.756677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }