{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6294da4-b933-4acf-96a2-63915183fac8", "symbol": "IDSE", "name": "iShares MSCI Europe SRI UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.475, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.164, "architecture_energy": 65.263, "architecture_maturity": 43.094, "architecture_confidence": 77.694, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 59.9, "upward_expansion": 84.36, "deceleration": 53.72, "rotation_down": 24.36, "downward_expansion": 11.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 154.442668, 153.600365, 151.54381, 149.333506 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 158.199997, "trend_reference": 147.313333, "distance_from_trend": 0.073901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.558567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193435, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.921853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08475, "excess_performance": -0.031912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030913, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512541, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5019, "relative_activity": 1.597492, "balance": 0.512541, "dry_up": 1.446146, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019362, "annualized_volatility": 0.190909, "from_high_reference": -0.004531, "from_low_reference": 0.225027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.313333, "fair_value_reference": 132.558567, "structural_low": 129.139999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.003748, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.008579, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.081534, "worst_return": -0.070108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01431, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.011946, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.104665, "worst_return": -0.123108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041848, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.003459, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.082498, "worst_return": -0.007902, 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"trend": 145.813999, "fair_value": 131.611131, "relative_strength": -3.227255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.199253, "energy": 73.211271, "activity_lines": [ 153.116001, 151.794546, 148.868286, 147.409978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 152.720001, "volume": 5045, "typical_volume": 3700.2, "trend": 146.197333, "fair_value": 131.83267, "relative_strength": -4.124999, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.731054, "energy": 73.113633, "activity_lines": [ 153.125334, 152.190546, 149.487715, 147.855527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.860001, "volume": 6826, "typical_volume": 3218.75, "trend": 146.452666, "fair_value": 132.031003, "relative_strength": -5.527343, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.631478, "energy": 56.550218, "activity_lines": [ 152.133334, 151.974546, 149.825048, 148.091828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 154.320007, "volume": 1284, "typical_volume": 3248.2, "trend": 146.821333, "fair_value": 132.279336, "relative_strength": -3.397025, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.288845, "energy": 49.554521, "activity_lines": [ 152.746669, 152.478184, 150.539906, 148.599398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.199997, "volume": 5019, "typical_volume": 3141.8, "trend": 147.313333, "fair_value": 132.558567, "relative_strength": -1.921853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.163882, "energy": 65.263196, "activity_lines": [ 154.442668, 153.600365, 151.54381, 149.333506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }