{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a629574b-cc31-4100-a20d-fb51c807e5e8", "symbol": "688538", "name": "Everdisplay Optronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 82.194, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.226, "architecture_energy": 13.139, "architecture_maturity": 25.728, "architecture_confidence": 62.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.1, "rotation_up": 24.68, "upward_expansion": 20.46, "deceleration": 52.05, "rotation_down": 40.03, "downward_expansion": 58.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.386667, 2.395273, 2.37219, 2.382903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.4, "trend_reference": 2.434333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014104, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.407244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003009, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.817942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09434, "excess_performance": -0.051136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014104, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032042, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107355, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.355812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329795403, "relative_activity": 0.871404, "balance": 1.355812, "dry_up": 1.210214, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083333, "annualized_volatility": 0.228747, "from_high_reference": -0.218241, "from_low_reference": 0.105991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.434333, "fair_value_reference": 2.407244, "structural_low": 2.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.015066, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.013925, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.065385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011444, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.010278, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.279412, "worst_return": -0.140078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022472, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051136, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.174672, "worst_return": -0.233083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.078789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318627, "worst_return": -0.161049, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026906, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"trend": 2.476333, "fair_value": 2.412564, "relative_strength": -3.849406, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.798959, "energy": 11.239881, "activity_lines": [ 2.444667, 2.408909, 2.369381, 2.407161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.31, "volume": 627649331, "typical_volume": 372140702.85, "trend": 2.463667, "fair_value": 2.41109, "relative_strength": -5.854677, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.930667, "energy": 13.488544, "activity_lines": [ 2.411333, 2.395818, 2.36319, 2.39643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 443144803, "typical_volume": 372166353.05, "trend": 2.453, "fair_value": 2.409615, "relative_strength": -6.104523, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.069259, "energy": 11.876781, "activity_lines": [ 2.384, 2.386909, 2.360333, 2.387806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.42, "volume": 431502649, "typical_volume": 377471849.0, "trend": 2.443, "fair_value": 2.40859, "relative_strength": -2.688676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.96485, "energy": 8.784213, "activity_lines": [ 2.388, 2.393273, 2.367, 2.385677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.4, "volume": 329795403, "typical_volume": 378464508.85, "trend": 2.434333, "fair_value": 2.407244, "relative_strength": -5.817942, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.226173, "energy": 13.139058, "activity_lines": [ 2.386667, 2.395273, 2.37219, 2.382903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }