{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a62a41c3-f466-41db-a7e3-4f9eafa1e480", "symbol": "MAM", "name": "Microequities Asset Management Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.31, "architecture_energy": 10.718, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.884, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.8, "rotation_up": 32.78, "upward_expansion": 26.27, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 17.11, "downward_expansion": 48.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.433, 0.427273, 0.423786, 0.434565 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.45802, "distance_from_trend": -0.017511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.487117, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076198, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.75196, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.123511, "excess_performance": -0.187217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083188, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123511, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.814995, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26390, "relative_activity": 0.218977, "balance": 0.814995, "dry_up": 0.639154, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044444, "annualized_volatility": 0.297707, "from_high_reference": -0.243675, "from_low_reference": 0.139241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.45802, "fair_value_reference": 0.487117, "structural_low": 0.395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.026553, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": 0.023745, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.174312, "worst_return": -0.191177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.113044, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.106968, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.199999, "worst_return": -0.163265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096238, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.059733, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.164027, "worst_return": -0.063744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.734325, "energy": 25.646948, "activity_lines": [ 0.426, 0.419909, 0.424452, 0.441773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.41, "volume": 156238, "typical_volume": 135541.65, "trend": 0.466913, "fair_value": 0.487887, "relative_strength": -17.739555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.622596, "energy": 26.206711, "activity_lines": [ 0.422, 0.418909, 0.421976, 0.437725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.43, "volume": 28926, "typical_volume": 125717.35, "trend": 0.462053, "fair_value": 0.487478, "relative_strength": -15.284156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.510211, "energy": 18.895853, "activity_lines": [ 0.425333, 0.421545, 0.421786, 0.435343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 26390, "typical_volume": 120515.2, "trend": 0.45802, "fair_value": 0.487117, "relative_strength": -13.75196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.310347, "energy": 10.717757, "activity_lines": [ 0.433, 0.427273, 0.423786, 0.434565 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }