{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a62d8e8d-c0c3-4bef-8499-662d97d25af8", "symbol": "000625", "name": "Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.624, "architecture_energy": 47.497, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.247, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.17, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 21.69, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.55, "downward_expansion": 69.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.402922, 7.292393, 7.766747, 8.401854 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.35, "trend_reference": 9.301618, "distance_from_trend": -0.209815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.535599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.43795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.339029, "excess_performance": -0.346429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 438408405, "relative_activity": 1.374927, "balance": 0.586294, "dry_up": 1.505721, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073586, "annualized_volatility": 0.272762, "from_high_reference": -0.466653, "from_low_reference": 0.09401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.301618, "fair_value_reference": 12.535599, "structural_low": 6.718405, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.010943, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.019789, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.579505, "worst_return": -0.16894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053089, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.06044, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.138075, "worst_return": -0.314528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007092, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.073237, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.546903, "worst_return": -0.370924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -72.944816, "energy": 70.204017, "activity_lines": [ 7.051539, 7.415377, 8.295196, 8.991799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.11, "volume": 413663018, "typical_volume": 284846765.5, "trend": 9.740951, "fair_value": 12.639576, "relative_strength": -35.730308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.274963, "energy": 68.124775, "activity_lines": [ 7.047636, 7.287586, 8.110774, 8.812318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.2, "volume": 475036257, "typical_volume": 291920571.65, "trend": 9.589284, "fair_value": 12.602874, "relative_strength": -34.261114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.098599, "energy": 65.67612, "activity_lines": [ 7.094188, 7.215794, 7.953733, 8.648386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.87, "volume": 593345695, "typical_volume": 309674997.9, "trend": 9.451951, "fair_value": 12.569076, "relative_strength": -26.079832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.920732, "energy": 55.657651, "activity_lines": [ 7.372625, 7.296184, 7.877978, 8.537464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.35, "volume": 438408405, "typical_volume": 318859410.95, "trend": 9.301618, "fair_value": 12.535599, "relative_strength": -33.43795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.623576, "energy": 47.497287, "activity_lines": [ 7.402922, 7.292393, 7.766747, 8.401854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }