{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a62dadbe-704d-4302-9ba6-6bcc618aa45b", "symbol": "MCOT", "name": "MCOT Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.175, "architecture_energy": 18.104, "architecture_maturity": 50.358, "architecture_confidence": 62.576, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.13, "rotation_up": 51.22, "upward_expansion": 55.7, "deceleration": 56.59, "rotation_down": 14.08, "downward_expansion": 22.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.88, 5.767273, 5.820952, 5.826129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.85, "trend_reference": 5.556667, "distance_from_trend": 0.052789, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.071154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.899848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.440887, "excess_performance": 0.248562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052789, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118998, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.440887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.103587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1241500, "relative_activity": 0.459691, "balance": 3.103587, "dry_up": 0.617666, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087705, "annualized_volatility": 0.61049, "from_high_reference": -0.22, "from_low_reference": 1.135036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.556667, "fair_value_reference": 4.071154, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.044383, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059701, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097433, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.33945, "worst_return": -0.488889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.198413, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.159926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155963, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.403509, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.578125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040984, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.58, "volume": 428900, "typical_volume": 130525.0, "trend": 4.144667, "fair_value": 5.104615, "relative_strength": -15.631883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.422524, "energy": 19.991187, "activity_lines": [ 5.853333, 5.758182, 5.85, 5.780409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 704300, "typical_volume": 3076830.0, "trend": 5.464333, "fair_value": 4.057115, "relative_strength": 8.626543, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.069905, "energy": 24.315022, "activity_lines": [ 5.863333, 5.748182, 5.827143, 5.801247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.85, "volume": 1241500, "typical_volume": 2700730.0, "trend": 5.556667, "fair_value": 4.071154, "relative_strength": 11.899848, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.174584, "energy": 18.103808, "activity_lines": [ 5.88, 5.767273, 5.820952, 5.826129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }