{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a632e77a-70fc-47c9-876a-b059a613ac5c", "symbol": "ACX", "name": "ACT Energy Technologies Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.934, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.023, "architecture_energy": 27.623, "architecture_maturity": 21.78, "architecture_confidence": 74.02, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.32, "rotation_up": 21.26, "upward_expansion": 7.57, "deceleration": 54.11, "rotation_down": 42.75, "downward_expansion": 69.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.089333, 6.098909, 6.285762, 6.387312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.12, "trend_reference": 6.391333, "distance_from_trend": -0.042453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.816538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052172, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.261119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037288, "excess_performance": -0.083133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054617, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032386, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037288, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.022387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 971700, "relative_activity": 2.335003, "balance": 2.022387, "dry_up": 0.978685, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086476, "annualized_volatility": 0.365004, "from_high_reference": -0.209302, "from_low_reference": 0.369128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.391333, "fair_value_reference": 5.816538, "structural_low": 5.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010474, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.135593, "worst_return": -0.204301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.071994, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.373737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.915254, "worst_return": -0.121043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.073724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"mixed", "direction": -22.391856, "energy": 42.620355, "activity_lines": [ 6.031333, 6.278909, 6.455857, 6.43828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.2, "volume": 280200, "typical_volume": 439465.0, "trend": 6.289333, "fair_value": 5.818974, "relative_strength": -2.054792, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.509517, "energy": 46.490423, "activity_lines": [ 6.053333, 6.240727, 6.418619, 6.434237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.14, "volume": 225000, "typical_volume": 430530.0, "trend": 6.322333, "fair_value": 5.820192, "relative_strength": -3.265895, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.446829, "energy": 34.229015, "activity_lines": [ 6.085333, 6.191818, 6.376619, 6.424602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.98, "volume": 152200, "typical_volume": 393785.0, "trend": 6.355667, "fair_value": 5.817244, "relative_strength": -5.369292, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.279324, "energy": 24.019141, "activity_lines": [ 6.068, 6.123455, 6.321381, 6.402516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.12, "volume": 971700, "typical_volume": 416145.0, "trend": 6.391333, "fair_value": 5.816538, "relative_strength": -6.261119, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.023188, "energy": 27.622808, "activity_lines": [ 6.089333, 6.098909, 6.285762, 6.387312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }