{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a632e8e1-2a9a-43b5-ba14-f142fc95f109", "symbol": "CENTRALBK", "name": "Central Bank of India", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.772, "architecture_energy": 48.935, "architecture_maturity": 44.339, "architecture_confidence": 94.867, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.92, "rotation_up": 18.59, "upward_expansion": 7.84, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 55.3, "downward_expansion": 78.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.312667, 31.664909, 32.21628, 32.952259 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.360001, "trend_reference": 34.058759, "distance_from_trend": -0.079238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.804368, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.779183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138553, "excess_performance": -0.094844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047519, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138553, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.143256, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25525250, "relative_activity": 0.708397, "balance": 0.143256, "dry_up": 1.243232, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047415, "annualized_volatility": 0.271513, "from_high_reference": -0.221077, "from_low_reference": 0.049883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.058759, "fair_value_reference": 44.804368, "structural_low": 29.870001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.01385, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02434, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.166618, "worst_return": -0.169761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041832, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054234, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.117249, "worst_return": -0.213519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062139, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064166, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173056, "worst_return": -0.280432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 30.969999, "volume": 24670774, "typical_volume": 36782163.6, "trend": 34.217102, "fair_value": 44.806921, "relative_strength": -10.404167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.201876, "energy": 45.165035, "activity_lines": [ 31.463333, 31.713818, 32.366945, 33.136588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.360001, "volume": 25525250, "typical_volume": 36032424.25, "trend": 34.058759, "fair_value": 44.804368, "relative_strength": -9.779183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.772193, "energy": 48.935163, "activity_lines": [ 31.312667, 31.664909, 32.21628, 32.952259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }