{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a6405d1b-df83-4ece-a25e-b1d902383550", "symbol": "IMEU", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.046, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.271, "architecture_energy": 72.946, "architecture_maturity": 40.787, "architecture_confidence": 81.59, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 63.43, "upward_expansion": 87.47, "deceleration": 52.54, "rotation_down": 22.77, "downward_expansion": 14.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.710333, 40.45109, 39.70694, 39.08438 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.299999, "trend_reference": 38.434467, "distance_from_trend": 0.074556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.349609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276677, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.964738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095704, "excess_performance": -0.075188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040618, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276677, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.849923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120897, "relative_activity": 0.619697, "balance": 1.849923, "dry_up": 1.197669, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018813, "annualized_volatility": 0.145008, "from_high_reference": -0.003979, "from_low_reference": 0.244597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.434467, "fair_value_reference": 32.349609, "structural_low": 34.369109, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012915, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.004851, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.074156, "worst_return": -0.055315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.023878, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.029017, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.085993, "worst_return": -0.033253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075506, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.036579, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.150336, "worst_return": -0.11428, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.937997, "energy": 78.774129, "activity_lines": [ 40.235999, 39.874688, 39.045027, 38.579607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.380001, "volume": 204192, "typical_volume": 218848.3, "trend": 38.165993, "fair_value": 32.164164, "relative_strength": -2.782832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.915165, "energy": 74.959407, "activity_lines": [ 40.310333, 40.039091, 39.245271, 38.731694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.634998, "volume": 239234, "typical_volume": 213697.4, "trend": 38.302383, "fair_value": 32.254858, "relative_strength": -2.786886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.755035, "energy": 59.886078, "activity_lines": [ 40.427333, 40.199999, 39.454012, 38.890985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.299999, "volume": 120897, "typical_volume": 195090.65, "trend": 38.434467, "fair_value": 32.349609, "relative_strength": -3.964738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.270703, "energy": 72.94604, "activity_lines": [ 40.710333, 40.45109, 39.70694, 39.08438 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }