{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a640da99-6c32-42b6-ac52-775003985bc0", "symbol": "VTX", "name": "Vertex Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.822, "architecture_energy": 34.096, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.08, "rotation_up": 29.78, "upward_expansion": 19.81, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 42.76, "downward_expansion": 72.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.112133, 0.108855, 0.12089, 0.13423 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.156567, "distance_from_trend": -0.073877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.180078, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.708714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292683, "excess_performance": -0.356389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3602854, "relative_activity": 1.842119, "balance": 0.402, "dry_up": 1.058536, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13687, "annualized_volatility": 0.940923, "from_high_reference": -0.641975, "from_low_reference": 0.576087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.156567, "fair_value_reference": 0.180078, "structural_low": 0.092, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022525, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.024753, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067416, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.078405, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.325301, "worst_return": -0.455556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119048, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.095139, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.235955, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 1665035, "typical_volume": 2256963.05, "trend": 0.1641, "fair_value": 0.180021, "relative_strength": -54.252688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.115342, "energy": 80.855277, "activity_lines": [ 0.099467, 0.105309, 0.124129, 0.13966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.094, "volume": 1808296, "typical_volume": 1975549.6, "trend": 0.159067, "fair_value": 0.179854, "relative_strength": -55.26493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.949344, "energy": 69.715762, "activity_lines": [ 0.0966, 0.101982, 0.1199, 0.135138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 3602854, "typical_volume": 1955820.45, "trend": 0.156567, "fair_value": 0.180078, "relative_strength": -32.708714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.822497, "energy": 34.095581, "activity_lines": [ 0.112133, 0.108855, 0.12089, 0.13423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }