{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a640e47c-62ec-4cf2-b48c-6392256043ac", "symbol": "RWD", "name": "Reward Minerals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.064, "architecture_energy": 35.431, "architecture_maturity": 85.971, "architecture_confidence": 91.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.32, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 37.18, "downward_expansion": 67.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.031467, 0.030727, 0.033095, 0.035535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.033, "trend_reference": 0.038433, "distance_from_trend": -0.14137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.045565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.047076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14137, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 227619, "relative_activity": 0.803988, "balance": 0.530812, "dry_up": 1.554676, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107226, "annualized_volatility": 0.533255, "from_high_reference": -0.410714, "from_low_reference": 0.178571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.038433, "fair_value_reference": 0.045565, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.009998, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.020201, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.956522, "worst_return": -0.209306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.050001, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.037191, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.307692, "worst_return": -0.406986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017978, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.192308, "worst_return": -0.45349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.037533, 0.039054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.029, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 201735.8, "trend": 0.039933, "fair_value": 0.045934, "relative_strength": -30.108142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.427553, "energy": 88.576885, "activity_lines": [ 0.0302, 0.032473, 0.036505, 0.038325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.029, "volume": 2991, "typical_volume": 201885.35, "trend": 0.039567, "fair_value": 0.045844, "relative_strength": -29.100722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.68446, "energy": 88.079903, "activity_lines": [ 0.029467, 0.031436, 0.035538, 0.037619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.028, "volume": 184293, "typical_volume": 210100.0, "trend": 0.039167, "fair_value": 0.045746, "relative_strength": -30.913791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.435511, "energy": 86.073175, "activity_lines": [ 0.028733, 0.030473, 0.034538, 0.036873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 842180, "typical_volume": 247969.05, "trend": 0.038867, "fair_value": 0.045678, "relative_strength": -25.110973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.740167, "energy": 61.089765, "activity_lines": [ 0.029067, 0.030127, 0.033795, 0.036282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.033, "volume": 506500, "typical_volume": 273171.6, "trend": 0.0387, "fair_value": 0.045619, "relative_strength": -18.980462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.897196, "energy": 49.191842, "activity_lines": [ 0.0304, 0.030436, 0.033414, 0.035903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.033, "volume": 227619, "typical_volume": 283112.3, "trend": 0.038433, "fair_value": 0.045565, "relative_strength": -21.047076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.063805, "energy": 35.431413, "activity_lines": [ 0.031467, 0.030727, 0.033095, 0.035535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }