{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a646d37e-c671-4715-9122-5040cfbc724e", "symbol": "0351", "name": "Asia Energy Logistics Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.582, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.786, "architecture_energy": 28.536, "architecture_maturity": 45.124, "architecture_confidence": 57.625, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.92, "rotation_up": 17.02, "upward_expansion": 18.07, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 60.62, "downward_expansion": 40.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.314667, 0.330636, 0.340786, 0.329796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.305, "trend_reference": 0.317667, "distance_from_trend": -0.039874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.221801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.375105, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.508399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075758, "excess_performance": -0.060466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.375105, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.429901, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.488307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1161200, "relative_activity": 0.479869, "balance": 0.424999, "dry_up": 1.198336, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124842, "annualized_volatility": 0.756847, "from_high_reference": -0.364583, "from_low_reference": 0.326087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.317667, "fair_value_reference": 0.221801, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023368, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.047284, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.189474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.053571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.410714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.453771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.447368, "worst_return": -0.384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.338462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.56044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.466667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.361, 0.364636, 0.342119, 0.327903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.355, "volume": 7316000, "typical_volume": 2852047.2, "trend": 0.315667, "fair_value": 0.217596, "relative_strength": 17.979563, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.026097, "energy": 26.858998, "activity_lines": [ 0.36, 0.361636, 0.345714, 0.330548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.31, "volume": 8224016, "typical_volume": 3164245.0, "trend": 0.316167, "fair_value": 0.21859, "relative_strength": -1.115345, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.075729, "energy": 11.631933, "activity_lines": [ 0.343667, 0.351273, 0.344595, 0.330183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 892640, "typical_volume": 3198735.0, "trend": 0.317333, "fair_value": 0.219782, "relative_strength": 8.679302, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.903118, "energy": 15.318621, "activity_lines": [ 0.340333, 0.347636, 0.346119, 0.33172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.3, "volume": 1321200, "typical_volume": 3259795.0, "trend": 0.3175, "fair_value": 0.220808, "relative_strength": -2.391166, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.168743, "energy": 16.730392, "activity_lines": [ 0.324667, 0.337818, 0.343333, 0.330602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.305, "volume": 1161200, "typical_volume": 2419825.0, "trend": 0.317667, "fair_value": 0.221801, "relative_strength": -4.508399, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.785607, "energy": 28.536292, "activity_lines": [ 0.314667, 0.330636, 0.340786, 0.329796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }