{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a646e16f-1355-485b-9eae-4f5c21d33dbb",
    "symbol": "WFG",
    "name": "West Fraser Timber Co Ltd",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 89.977,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 24.115,
    "architecture_energy": 15.132,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.729,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.801,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.21,
        "rotation_up": 38.65,
        "upward_expansion": 34.54,
        "deceleration": 39.52,
        "rotation_down": 33.11,
        "downward_expansion": 23.21
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        68.450667,
        68.544914,
        67.193454,
        66.621151
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 72.14,
    "trend_reference": 66.703566,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.081501,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 74.161677,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02726,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.936475,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.011887,
    "excess_performance": -0.137512,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081501,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04055,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02726,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.150998,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029365,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.16343,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011887,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.130102,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1373017,
      "relative_activity": 1.458202,
      "balance": 1.130102,
      "dry_up": 1.318332,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.071287,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.345963,
      "from_high_reference": -0.058347,
      "from_low_reference": 0.271037
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 66.703566,
      "fair_value_reference": 74.161677,
      "structural_low": 58.084093,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": -0.001488,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020806,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.217505,
        "worst_return": -0.155073,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.024417,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008104,
        "regime_survival": 0.222222,
        "best_return": 0.171899,
        "worst_return": -0.170239,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.014738,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015018,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.246474,
        "worst_return": -0.188824,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.062252,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.174485,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.091593,
        "worst_return": -0.09935,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.081701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.021936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.079399,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.049063,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.046665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.04954,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1115177.9,
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        "fair_value": 75.051699,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 58.950128,
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        "typical_volume": 1049585.9,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1046693.95,
        "trend": 63.833279,
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        "relative_strength": -18.471411,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.286954,
        "energy": 46.665978,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 68.50638,
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        "typical_volume": 1001855.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 952636,
        "typical_volume": 983849.1,
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        "fair_value": 74.758688,
        "relative_strength": -11.257662,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 991019.9,
        "trend": 64.64943,
        "fair_value": 74.714776,
        "relative_strength": -7.09688,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 65.295196,
        "fair_value": 74.586663,
        "relative_strength": -3.724207,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": 53.041288,
        "energy": 58.059069,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 69.64,
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        "typical_volume": 932625.3,
        "trend": 65.559664,
        "fair_value": 74.517184,
        "relative_strength": -5.026679,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.763425,
        "energy": 59.386016,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 65.819369,
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        "relative_strength": -8.925632,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.651337,
        "energy": 48.382538,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 70.41,
        "volume": 991042,
        "typical_volume": 909989.5,
        "trend": 66.211126,
        "fair_value": 74.33417,
        "relative_strength": -2.744026,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.820531,
        "energy": 37.253407,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.259339,
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          66.557692,
          66.359718
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 66.19,
        "volume": 1408411,
        "typical_volume": 933004.85,
        "trend": 66.418993,
        "fair_value": 74.237625,
        "relative_strength": -7.609465,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 11.727192,
        "energy": 12.472356,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.210667,
          68.333444,
          66.628063,
          66.358355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 64.85,
        "volume": 1192801,
        "typical_volume": 945386.55,
        "trend": 66.497659,
        "fair_value": 74.171487,
        "relative_strength": -10.01502,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -2.809064,
        "energy": 5.326668,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.961333,
          67.804024,
          66.564425,
          66.257129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 72.14,
        "volume": 1373017,
        "typical_volume": 941582.1,
        "trend": 66.703566,
        "fair_value": 74.161677,
        "relative_strength": -2.936475,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.115356,
        "energy": 15.132018,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.450667,
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          67.193454,
          66.621151
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}