{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a64d657d-df28-4c1e-be4a-7cde674a4c1e", "symbol": "RADICO", "name": "Radico Khaitan Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.377, "architecture_energy": 96.07, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.828, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 86.43, "upward_expansion": 99.81, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 11.07, "downward_expansion": 21.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 4291.629102, 4115.597274, 3844.015916, 3597.948456 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 4499.0, "trend_reference": 3309.108968, "distance_from_trend": 0.35958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2369.950019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.898352, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 40.895981, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.649677, "excess_performance": 0.693386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.35958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082486, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.898352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.284018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.40896, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171855, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.649677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.50203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2067577, "relative_activity": 1.167007, "balance": 10.50203, "dry_up": 1.333273, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042098, "annualized_volatility": 0.266292, "from_high_reference": -0.01989, "from_low_reference": 0.7996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3309.108968, "fair_value_reference": 2369.950019, "structural_low": 2500.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.023081, "positive_rate": 0.644444, "directional_follow_through": 0.644444, "median_excess_return": 0.024847, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.248327, "worst_return": -0.133252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.025214, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.024374, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.283817, "worst_return": -0.269883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.143365, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.151685, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.606134, "worst_return": -0.289656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 4039.636247, 3897.910742, 3658.162784, 3445.259304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4340.799805, "volume": 4502988, "typical_volume": 1763974.25, "trend": 3257.335636, "fair_value": 2349.646608, "relative_strength": 38.360058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.889672, "energy": 95.400415, "activity_lines": [ 4156.581917, 3999.460352, 3747.22434, 3517.841078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4499.0, "volume": 2067577, "typical_volume": 1771692.35, "trend": 3309.108968, "fair_value": 2369.950019, "relative_strength": 40.895981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.37736, "energy": 96.070451, "activity_lines": [ 4291.629102, 4115.597274, 3844.015916, 3597.948456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }