{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a651bc00-e6be-4ef7-8873-c28d36c02b72", "symbol": "000728", "name": "Guoyuan Securities Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.439, "architecture_energy": 17.405, "architecture_maturity": 20.271, "architecture_confidence": 59.748, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.31, "rotation_up": 23.57, "upward_expansion": 14.51, "deceleration": 61.29, "rotation_down": 34.82, "downward_expansion": 59.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.252667, 7.269346, 7.228771, 7.354532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.21, "trend_reference": 7.596451, "distance_from_trend": -0.050873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.385206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.114498, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136527, "excess_performance": -0.143927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.021331, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109613931, "relative_activity": 0.799116, "balance": 1.021331, "dry_up": 1.053074, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056654, "annualized_volatility": 0.231707, "from_high_reference": -0.281624, "from_low_reference": 0.083845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.596451, "fair_value_reference": 7.385206, "structural_low": 6.65224, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004184, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.018895, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.390282, "worst_return": -0.068831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009887, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.05679, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.384012, "worst_return": -0.142979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029629, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030262, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.271302, "worst_return": -0.147094, 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-11.56089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.687033, "energy": 22.49706, "activity_lines": [ 7.349898, 7.225107, 7.255965, 7.436835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.19, "volume": 164590153, "typical_volume": 135890745.15, "trend": 7.671451, "fair_value": 7.373549, "relative_strength": -12.442681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.897162, "energy": 16.644347, "activity_lines": [ 7.302667, 7.234195, 7.238043, 7.4033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.34, "volume": 143182817, "typical_volume": 137808462.4, "trend": 7.634451, "fair_value": 7.379855, "relative_strength": -8.640694, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.189141, "energy": 12.072912, "activity_lines": [ 7.288667, 7.265983, 7.238122, 7.381916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.21, "volume": 109613931, "typical_volume": 137168917.5, "trend": 7.596451, "fair_value": 7.385206, "relative_strength": -14.114498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.438784, "energy": 17.405269, "activity_lines": [ 7.252667, 7.269346, 7.228771, 7.354532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }