{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a654a24c-dd78-48b0-afbc-ff86715e08e9", "symbol": "CVCO", "name": "Cavco Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.639, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.144, "architecture_energy": 19.838, "architecture_maturity": 34.269, "architecture_confidence": 79.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.97, "rotation_up": 28.06, "upward_expansion": 59.02, "deceleration": 89.23, "rotation_down": 27.26, "downward_expansion": 16.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 570.552, 577.775273, 560.459143, 549.921054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 592.23, "trend_reference": 549.826667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 450.617115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.031995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099308, "excess_performance": -0.088146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.997585, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 735967, "relative_activity": 1.13946, "balance": 1.997585, "dry_up": 0.957625, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080607, "annualized_volatility": 0.395834, "from_high_reference": -0.169395, "from_low_reference": 0.335852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 549.826667, "fair_value_reference": 450.617115, "structural_low": 443.335, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.016985, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.027871, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.206719, "worst_return": -0.173677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015028, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001296, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.211659, "worst_return": -0.076183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.183992, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.061329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.376832, "worst_return": -0.015965, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 547.03, "volume": 757803, "typical_volume": 644901.9, "trend": 552.342333, "fair_value": 448.701731, "relative_strength": -9.703381, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.772454, "energy": 10.360765, "activity_lines": [ 563.076, 574.606364, 555.057476, 547.347656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 592.23, "volume": 735967, "typical_volume": 645891.25, "trend": 549.826667, "fair_value": 450.617115, "relative_strength": -7.031995, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.143825, "energy": 19.838213, "activity_lines": [ 570.552, 577.775273, 560.459143, 549.921054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }