{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a65b7889-013b-4695-980c-d90403625041", "symbol": "CI2", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI India Swap II UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.608, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.156, "architecture_energy": 28.171, "architecture_maturity": 13.721, "architecture_confidence": 43.274, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 50.45, "upward_expansion": 49.36, "deceleration": 39.35, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 10.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 811.941992, 809.783158, 800.370203, 798.181094 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 821.049988, "trend_reference": 802.599109, "distance_from_trend": 0.022989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 882.336844, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06946, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.880433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035743, "excess_performance": -0.089054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013467, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 477, "relative_activity": 1.223861, "balance": 1.094623, "dry_up": 1.25016, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022703, "annualized_volatility": 0.167694, "from_high_reference": -0.103478, "from_low_reference": 0.133042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 802.599109, "fair_value_reference": 882.336844, "structural_low": 724.642395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010517, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000191, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.02812, "worst_return": -0.078657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044353, "worst_return": -0.052565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003057, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086282, "worst_return": -0.127753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 798.5, "volume": 118, "typical_volume": 466.8, "trend": 806.581, "fair_value": 881.401242, "relative_strength": -7.363338, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.554064, "energy": 22.390564, "activity_lines": [ 806.453337, 802.934473, 794.775573, 796.6266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 813.799988, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 420.35, "trend": 804.174312, "fair_value": 881.831207, "relative_strength": -6.766094, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.97449, "energy": 23.207164, "activity_lines": [ 807.904663, 806.004477, 797.293578, 797.092341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 821.049988, "volume": 477, "typical_volume": 389.75, "trend": 802.599109, "fair_value": 882.336844, "relative_strength": -7.880433, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.156255, "energy": 28.171346, "activity_lines": [ 811.941992, 809.783158, 800.370203, 798.181094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }