{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a66cc81c-dbf1-4930-9a21-d229d232c66d", "symbol": "688029", "name": "Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.429, "architecture_energy": 19.299, "architecture_maturity": 30.492, "architecture_confidence": 63.222, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.27, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 12.72, "deceleration": 62.54, "rotation_down": 33.13, "downward_expansion": 58.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.184, 72.898607, 74.450939, 75.212096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.220001, "trend_reference": 76.971691, "distance_from_trend": -0.035749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.122042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.153535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068524, "excess_performance": -0.02532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018839, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068524, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8804573, "relative_activity": 1.194489, "balance": 0.894694, "dry_up": 1.468535, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076496, "annualized_volatility": 0.372274, "from_high_reference": -0.265803, "from_low_reference": 0.110081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.971691, "fair_value_reference": 73.122042, "structural_low": 66.860001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005479, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008638, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.48291, "worst_return": -0.272065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028896, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.00118, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.211655, "worst_return": -0.454742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013985, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.522362, "worst_return": -0.427605, "sufficient": true }, { 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-4.655919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.57589, "energy": 28.129829, "activity_lines": [ 73.342667, 73.606309, 75.18714, 76.153542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.0, "volume": 13110458, "typical_volume": 7057021.05, "trend": 77.566691, "fair_value": 73.17333, "relative_strength": -10.058482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.632917, "energy": 27.164221, "activity_lines": [ 72.830667, 72.899236, 74.764994, 75.707131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.889999, "volume": 9216613, "typical_volume": 7189974.85, "trend": 77.216358, "fair_value": 73.142379, "relative_strength": -7.664439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.62296, "energy": 22.644576, "activity_lines": [ 72.887333, 72.719843, 74.541895, 75.405409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.220001, "volume": 8804573, "typical_volume": 7370994.35, "trend": 76.971691, "fair_value": 73.122042, "relative_strength": -8.153535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.428763, "energy": 19.299097, "activity_lines": [ 73.184, 72.898607, 74.450939, 75.212096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }