{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a66cfdf8-c046-4be6-8231-4dfa1dc462aa", "symbol": "IGV", "name": "I Grandi Viaggi S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.592, "architecture_energy": 82.561, "architecture_maturity": 28.216, "architecture_confidence": 82.75, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 11.19, "upward_expansion": 17.75, "deceleration": 38.16, "rotation_down": 81.62, "downward_expansion": 95.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.964667, 2.025455, 2.131929, 2.183882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.864, "trend_reference": 2.2668, "distance_from_trend": -0.177695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.515872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.733193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223333, "excess_performance": -0.394225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182702, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249802, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212462, "relative_activity": 2.953201, "balance": 0.249802, "dry_up": 1.668162, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067225, "annualized_volatility": 0.275983, "from_high_reference": -0.345965, "from_low_reference": 0.002151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.2668, "fair_value_reference": 1.515872, "structural_low": 1.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001997, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014493, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.195745, "worst_return": -0.101896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023269, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.050436, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.200557, "worst_return": -0.202222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044231, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.139529, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.066496, "worst_return": -0.21328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09009, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.138211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.430823, "energy": 74.666436, "activity_lines": [ 2.104667, 2.170636, 2.230548, 2.270376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.06, "volume": 54520, "typical_volume": 63442.35, "trend": 2.321, "fair_value": 1.494295, "relative_strength": -23.451309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.202872, "energy": 72.571373, "activity_lines": [ 2.083667, 2.141273, 2.211548, 2.252914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 149210, "typical_volume": 65735.95, "trend": 2.311, "fair_value": 1.501667, "relative_strength": -25.012952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.541797, "energy": 73.713887, "activity_lines": [ 2.048, 2.103909, 2.18731, 2.231559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 63858, "typical_volume": 64767.25, "trend": 2.292, "fair_value": 1.509218, "relative_strength": -24.369703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.688422, "energy": 72.762605, "activity_lines": [ 2.025333, 2.073545, 2.165262, 2.211495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.864, "volume": 212462, "typical_volume": 71942.95, "trend": 2.2668, "fair_value": 1.515872, "relative_strength": -30.733193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.59232, "energy": 82.56054, "activity_lines": [ 1.964667, 2.025455, 2.131929, 2.183882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }