{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a66d8a44-11ce-4b18-92aa-97fb6afc6817", "symbol": "VTAS", "name": "Volta Finance Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.748, "architecture_energy": 10.07, "architecture_maturity": 15.003, "architecture_confidence": 75.151, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.17, "rotation_up": 28.82, "upward_expansion": 31.66, "deceleration": 38.95, "rotation_down": 22.16, "downward_expansion": 39.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.96, 5.931516, 5.890906, 5.925086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.95, "trend_reference": 6.039683, "distance_from_trend": -0.014849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.55283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071526, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.99184, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098271, "excess_performance": -0.149506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098271, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731505, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31521, "relative_activity": 1.968273, "balance": 0.731505, "dry_up": 0.956521, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042539, "annualized_volatility": 0.118789, "from_high_reference": -0.166935, "from_low_reference": 0.075949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.039683, "fair_value_reference": 5.55283, "structural_low": 5.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.00592, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.08178, "worst_return": -0.050847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056588, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.060626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061076, "worst_return": -0.076271, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.058107, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015745, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.07351, "worst_return": -0.117549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01003, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.210407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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-44.843177, "energy": 23.657345, "activity_lines": [ 5.838892, 5.839761, 5.849509, 5.967296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.0, "volume": 5538, "typical_volume": 19339.35, "trend": 6.121141, "fair_value": 5.508092, "relative_strength": -12.108153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.752276, "energy": 10.015119, "activity_lines": [ 5.900179, 5.867385, 5.856779, 5.958196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.0, "volume": 8654, "typical_volume": 18060.9, "trend": 6.10286, "fair_value": 5.519949, "relative_strength": -12.457554, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.08965, "energy": 10.392319, "activity_lines": [ 5.943993, 5.892281, 5.866661, 5.950381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.95, "volume": 12015, "typical_volume": 15944.35, "trend": 6.081245, "fair_value": 5.531087, "relative_strength": -13.7816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.570462, "energy": 12.906914, "activity_lines": [ 5.956949, 5.905359, 5.873797, 5.940519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.95, "volume": 9083, "typical_volume": 15280.75, "trend": 6.057965, "fair_value": 5.541958, "relative_strength": -14.282059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.761731, "energy": 12.684787, "activity_lines": [ 5.96229, 5.919347, 5.881879, 5.932051 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.95, "volume": 31521, "typical_volume": 16014.55, "trend": 6.039683, "fair_value": 5.55283, "relative_strength": -13.99184, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.747573, "energy": 10.070339, "activity_lines": [ 5.96, 5.931516, 5.890906, 5.925086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }